Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Waves @ Bulldogs PEPP @ GONZ

PEPPERDINE

WAVESPEPP

6-14  |  Road

60
FINAL
Wed, Jan 21 • 9:00 PM ET
McCarthey Athletic Center
View Odds Details →

GONZAGA

BULLDOGSGONZ

19-1  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
WAVES
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
WAVES --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
181.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
GONZAGA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Gonzaga)
WavesPEPP (-3.5) 0 BulldogsGONZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Waves Cover

13.6%

Bulldogs Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GONZ -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GONZ)

PEPP By 1-7 points

9.3%

PEPP By 8-14 points

2.7%

GONZ By 1-7 points

21.6%

GONZ By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
85
PEPPERDINE
96
GONZAGA
Simulated Score
65
PEPPERDINE
88
GONZAGA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+27.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 181.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 21, 2026 PEPP @ GONZ 60 - 84
Dec 28, 2025 GONZ @ PEPP 96 - 56
Feb 15, 2025 PEPP @ GONZ 55 - 107
Dec 30, 2024 GONZ @ PEPP 89 - 82
Jan 18, 2024 GONZ @ PEPP 86 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +84.0% more
Gonzaga: 2.2 vs Pepperdine: 1.2
Steals (L5) +42.5% more
Gonzaga: 11.0 vs Pepperdine: 7.7
Assists (L5) +41.8% more
Gonzaga: 16.0 vs Pepperdine: 11.3
Rebounding (L5) +33.4% more
Gonzaga: 42.1 vs Pepperdine: 31.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PEPP Score 85.0 60
GONZ Score 96.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.6 / 25.3 25.0 / 14.0
Assists 16.0 / 11.3 9.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.2 / 1.2 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 51.1 / 40.1 47.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 66.8 / 70.0 71.0 / 93.0
Rebounding 42.1 / 31.6 42.0 / 34.0
Steals 11.0 / 7.7 10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 12.1 7.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PEPP
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: -0.6
GONZ Advantage
31-4-0 (88.6%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PEPP
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: -0.6
GONZ Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PEPP
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.4
GONZ
10-25-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GONZ
PEPP
GONZ
PEPP
ML
71% 25-10
62% 20-12
69% 20-9
69% 22-10
ATS
69% 24-11
56% 18-14
69% 20-9
69% 22-10
TTL
57% 20-15
50% 16-16
100% 29-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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