Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Salukis @ Beacons SIU @ VAL

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

SALUKISSIU

8-11  |  Road

63
FINAL
Wed, Jan 21 • 8:00 PM ET
Athletics-Recreation Center
View Odds Details →

VALPARAISO

BEACONSVAL

9-10  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
SALUKIS
0%
📊
BEACONS
100%
SALUKIS --
BEACONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Southern Illinois)
SalukisSIU (-3.5) 0 BeaconsVAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Salukis Cover

96.4%

Beacons Cover

3.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SIU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SIU)

SIU By 1-7 points

10.7%

SIU By 8-14 points

21.6%

VAL By 1-7 points

2.7%

VAL By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
79
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
61
VALPARAISO
Simulated Score
73
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
62
VALPARAISO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Salukis Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Salukis Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Salukis (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Salukis (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 21, 2026 SIU @ VAL 63 - 69
Jan 1, 2026 VAL @ SIU 70 - 75
Feb 22, 2025 VAL @ SIU 83 - 79
Jan 28, 2025 SIU @ VAL 79 - 75
Jan 24, 2024 VAL @ SIU 69 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +40.3% more
Southern Illinois: 4.8 vs Valparaiso: 2.9
Assists (L5) +34.6% more
Southern Illinois: 14.2 vs Valparaiso: 9.3
Steals (L5) +17.9% more
Southern Illinois: 7.0 vs Valparaiso: 5.8
Turnovers (L5) +15.9% more
Southern Illinois: 12.3 vs Valparaiso: 10.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SIU Score 79.0 63
VAL Score 61.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.4 / 28.7 44.0 / 21.0
Assists 9.3 / 14.2 14.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.9 / 4.8 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 40.1 / 40.1 49.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 71.3 / 69.7 67.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 35.9 / 37.9 31.0 / 35.0
Steals 5.8 / 7.0 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.3 / 12.3 10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
20%MONEY80%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SIU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +1.7
VAL Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SIU
16-15-0 (51.6%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +1.7
VAL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
SIU
9-22-0
O: 29.0% / U: 71.0% Total +/-: -5.5
VAL
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAL
SIU
VAL
SIU
ML
48% 16-17
53% 17-15
61% 20-13
47% 15-17
ATS
52% 17-16
56% 18-14
61% 20-13
47% 15-17
TTL
61% 20-13
53% 17-15
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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