Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Raiders @ Eagles COLG @ AMER

COLGATE

RAIDERSCOLG

11-8  |  Road

66
FINAL
Wed, Jan 21 • 7:00 PM ET
Bender Arena
View Odds Details →

AMERICAN UNIVERSITY

EAGLESAMER

11-8  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
0%
📊
EAGLES
100%
RAIDERS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
COLGATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Colgate)
RaidersCOLG (-3.5) 0 EaglesAMER (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raiders Cover

99.4%

Eagles Cover

0.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around COLG -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COLG)

COLG By 1-7 points

3.3%

COLG By 8-14 points

10.7%

AMER By 1-7 points

0.5%

AMER By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
75
COLGATE
50
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
Simulated Score
74
COLGATE
68
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Raiders Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raiders Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Raiders (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Raiders (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 21, 2026 COLG @ AMER 66 - 70
Jan 7, 2026 AMER @ COLG 62 - 64
Mar 9, 2025 COLG @ AMER 62 - 72
Mar 1, 2025 AMER @ COLG 67 - 59
Jan 25, 2025 COLG @ AMER 77 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +28.7% more
Colgate: 2.4 vs American University: 1.7
Assists (L5) +21.8% more
Colgate: 18.2 vs American University: 14.2
Rebounding (L5) +10.7% more
Colgate: 36.4 vs American University: 32.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.3%
Colgate: 39.5% vs American University: 32.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COLG Score 75.0 66
AMER Score 50.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.1 / 39.5 38.0 / 28.0
Assists 14.2 / 18.2 12.0 / 9.0
Blocks 1.7 / 2.4 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.4 / 50.8 47.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 76.1 / 72.9 86.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 32.5 / 36.4 38.0 / 27.0
Steals 6.4 / 5.6 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 9.6 19.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
5%MONEY95%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COLG Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -1.5
AMER
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COLG
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -1.5
AMER Advantage
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
COLG
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +4.9
AMER
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AMER
COLG
AMER
COLG
ML
62% 20-12
59% 19-13
62% 20-12
69% 22-10
ATS
59% 19-13
72% 23-9
62% 20-12
70% 23-10
TTL
59% 19-13
78% 25-7
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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