SOUTH DAKOTA
COYOTESSDAK
10-10 | Road
68
OMAHA
MAVERICKSOMA
9-11 | Home
64
AI Model Win Probability
COYOTES
100%
MAVERICKS
0%
COYOTES
--
MAVERICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
OMAHA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Omaha)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OMA -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OMA)
SDAK By 1-7 points
2.2%
SDAK By 8-14 points
0.4%
OMA By 1-7 points
9.3%
OMA By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
South Dakota
61
SOUTH DAKOTA
Omaha
80
OMAHA
Simulated Score
South Dakota
72
SOUTH DAKOTA
Omaha
78
OMAHA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mavericks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mavericks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mavericks (-6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim
Mavericks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
OMA @ SDAK
76 - 62
Feb 25, 2026
OMA @ SDAK
72 - 89
Jan 21, 2026
SDAK @ OMA
68 - 64
Mar 8, 2025
SDAK @ OMA
75 - 100
Feb 22, 2025
SDAK @ OMA
85 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+17.8% more
Omaha: 5.5
vs
South Dakota: 4.7
Turnovers (L5)
+13.3% more
South Dakota: 12.1
vs
Omaha: 10.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.7%
South Dakota: 81.4%
vs
Omaha: 72.7%
Assists (L5)
+8.1% more
South Dakota: 15.0
vs
Omaha: 13.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SDAK Score
61.0
68
OMA Score
80.0
64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.8 / 41.9
5.0 / 33.0
Assists
13.8 / 15.0
9.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.4 / 2.3
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
49.3 / 48.3
45.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
72.7 / 81.4
59.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
32.0 / 33.2
33.0 / 28.0
Steals
5.5 / 4.7
10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.5 / 12.1
14.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDAK
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: +0.7
OMA
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -0.5
ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDAK
Advantage
16-13-0
(55.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: +0.7
OMA
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: -0.5
ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SDAK
12-17-0
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6%
Total +/-: -1.1
OMA
14-14-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OMA
SDAK
OMA
SDAK
ML
79%
26-7
70%
21-9
67%
22-11
63%
19-11
ATS
76%
25-8
70%
21-9
67%
22-11
63%
19-11
TTL
73%
24-9
67%
20-10
100%
33-0
100%
30-0
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