UTSA
ROADRUNNERSUTSA
4-14 | Road
62
NORTH TEXAS
MEAN GREENUNT
11-7 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
ROADRUNNERS
100%
MEAN GREEN
0%
ROADRUNNERS
--
MEAN GREEN
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
NORTH TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (North Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNT -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNT)
UTSA By 1-7 points
20.1%
UTSA By 8-14 points
9.3%
UNT By 1-7 points
27.4%
UNT By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
UTSA
64
UTSA
North Texas
68
NORTH TEXAS
Simulated Score
UTSA
68
UTSA
North Texas
72
NORTH TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mean Green
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mean Green
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mean Green (+14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Mean Green (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u138.5
Loss
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
UNT @ UTSA
81 - 58
Jan 21, 2026
UTSA @ UNT
62 - 81
Feb 1, 2025
UTSA @ UNT
54 - 50
Jan 18, 2025
UNT @ UTSA
72 - 57
Feb 24, 2024
UTSA @ UNT
64 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+55.4% more
North Texas: 9.5
vs
UTSA: 6.1
Rebounding (L5)
+9.7% more
North Texas: 36.3
vs
UTSA: 33.1
Assists (L5)
+8.1% more
North Texas: 11.6
vs
UTSA: 10.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.1%
North Texas: 32.8%
vs
UTSA: 27.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTSA Score
64.0
62
UNT Score
68.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.8 / 27.7
36.0 / 26.0
Assists
11.6 / 10.8
16.0 / 8.0
Blocks
4.6 / 5.1
3.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
41.0 / 39.3
45.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
70.4 / 70.7
62.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
36.3 / 33.1
46.0 / 25.0
Steals
9.5 / 6.1
11.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 13.8
13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTSA
5-25-0
(16.7%)
Margin: -11.3
ATS +/-: -3.9
UNT
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 3.5
ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTSA
10-18-0
(35.7%)
Margin: -11.3
ATS +/-: -3.9
UNT
Advantage
17-14-0
(54.8%)
Margin: 3.5
ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UTSA
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.2
UNT
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNT
UTSA
UNT
UTSA
ML
70%
23-10
83%
24-5
59%
19-13
48%
14-15
ATS
52%
17-16
72%
21-8
59%
19-13
50%
15-15
TTL
67%
22-11
66%
19-10
100%
32-0
100%
30-0
Contextual Game News
.jpg)
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud, Admits Demanding $9,000…
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud in $9,000 Scheme
Mountain West Media Days: Eric Olen Earns High Praise from Rival…
UConn Men's Basketball 2026-27 TV Schedule Revealed: Up to Seven…
Jason Kidd in Advanced Talks to Join ESPN's NBA Countdown as Ana…