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MURRAY STATE

RACERSMUR

16-3  |  Road

90
FINAL
Wed, Jan 21 • 7:00 PM ET
Knapp Center
View Odds Details →

DRAKE

BULLDOGSDRKE

9-10  |  Home

101
AI Model Win Probability
RACERS
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
RACERS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
180.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
DRAKE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RacersMUR (-3.5) 0 BulldogsDRKE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Racers Cover

34.5%

Bulldogs Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DRKE +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DRKE)

MUR By 1-7 points

27.4%

MUR By 8-14 points

21.6%

DRKE By 1-7 points

20.1%

DRKE By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
92
MURRAY STATE
88
DRAKE
Simulated Score
68
MURRAY STATE
82
DRAKE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Racers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o158.5 Win
Proj Total: 180.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 21, 2026 MUR @ DRKE 90 - 101
Dec 18, 2025 DRKE @ MUR 72 - 81
Feb 4, 2025 DRKE @ MUR 55 - 45
Jan 5, 2025 MUR @ DRKE 66 - 59
Feb 18, 2024 MUR @ DRKE 72 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +66.9% more
Murray State: 7.3 vs Drake: 2.4
Free Throw % (L5) +14.0%
Murray State: 75.7% vs Drake: 61.7%
Steals (L5) +8.5% more
Murray State: 5.8 vs Drake: 5.3
Field Goal % (L5) +5.5%
Murray State: 47.3% vs Drake: 41.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MUR Score 92.0 90
DRKE Score 88.0 101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.8 / 36.8 42.0 / 22.0
Assists 13.8 / 13.7 9.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.4 / 7.3 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 41.8 / 47.3 50.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 61.7 / 75.7 78.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 35.1 / 37.9 45.0 / 37.0
Steals 5.3 / 5.8 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 11.1 9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MUR Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
DRKE
14-20-0 (41.2%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MUR Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
DRKE
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +4.8
DRKE
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DRKE
MUR
DRKE
MUR
ML
59% 20-14
58% 19-14
38% 13-21
61% 20-13
ATS
85% 29-5
52% 17-16
38% 13-21
61% 20-13
TTL
56% 19-15
70% 23-10
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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