Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Catamounts @ Bears WCU @ MER

WESTERN CAROLINA

CATAMOUNTSWCU

6-11  |  Road

76
FINAL
Wed, Jan 21 • 7:00 PM ET
Hawkins Arena
View Odds Details →

MERCER

BEARSMER

12-7  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
CATAMOUNTS
0%
📊
BEARS
100%
CATAMOUNTS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
118.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
WESTERN CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Western Carolina)
CatamountsWCU (-3.5) 0 BearsMER (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Catamounts Cover

97.7%

Bears Cover

2.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WCU -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WCU)

WCU By 1-7 points

8.0%

WCU By 8-14 points

18.6%

MER By 1-7 points

1.7%

MER By 8-14 points

0.3%

AI Model Projected Score
69
WESTERN CAROLINA
49
MERCER
Simulated Score
75
WESTERN CAROLINA
72
MERCER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Catamounts Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Catamounts Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Catamounts (-8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Catamounts (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u158.5 Loss
Proj Total: 118.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 WCU @ MER 77 - 73
Feb 25, 2026 MER @ WCU 74 - 78
Jan 21, 2026 WCU @ MER 76 - 88
Mar 7, 2025 WCU @ MER 66 - 67
Mar 1, 2025 WCU @ MER 69 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +46.1% more
Mercer: 3.4 vs Western Carolina: 2.3
Turnovers (L5) +34.2% more
Mercer: 13.3 vs Western Carolina: 9.9
Steals (L5) +27.8% more
Mercer: 6.5 vs Western Carolina: 5.1
Field Goal % (L5) +9.2%
Mercer: 53.9% vs Western Carolina: 44.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WCU Score 69.0 76
MER Score 49.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.6 / 34.9 23.0 / 32.0
Assists 13.9 / 13.6 15.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.4 / 2.3 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 53.9 / 44.7 46.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 76.1 / 68.1 71.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 38.5 / 37.6 44.0 / 40.0
Steals 6.5 / 5.1 10.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 13.3 / 9.9 7.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
22%MONEY78%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WCU
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +1.8
MER Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WCU
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +1.8
MER Advantage
19-10-0 (65.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
WCU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +2.5
MER
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MER
WCU
MER
WCU
ML
55% 17-14
63% 19-11
71% 22-9
76% 22-7
ATS
58% 18-13
73% 22-8
71% 22-9
77% 23-7
TTL
61% 19-12
67% 20-10
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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