PURDUE FORT WAYNE
MASTODONSPFW
12-8 | Road
83
DETROIT MERCY
TITANSDETM
8-10 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
MASTODONS
100%
TITANS
0%
MASTODONS
--
TITANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
181.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
DETROIT MERCY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Detroit Mercy)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DETM -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DETM)
PFW By 1-7 points
15.3%
PFW By 8-14 points
5.8%
DETM By 1-7 points
26.2%
DETM By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Purdue Fort Wayne
87
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Detroit Mercy
94
DETROIT MERCY
Simulated Score
Purdue Fort Wayne
82
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Detroit Mercy
65
DETROIT MERCY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Titans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mastodons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Titans (+3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Mastodons (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o155.5
Win
Proj Total: 181.0
D
Sim
u155.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 21, 2026
PFW @ DETM
83 - 76
Dec 14, 2025
DETM @ PFW
77 - 81
Jan 11, 2025
DETM @ PFW
67 - 90
Dec 5, 2024
PFW @ DETM
78 - 79
Feb 17, 2024
PFW @ DETM
83 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+33.8% more
Detroit Mercy: 39.2
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 29.3
Turnovers (L5)
+31.4% more
Detroit Mercy: 12.2
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 9.3
Assists (L5)
+16.9% more
Purdue Fort Wayne: 15.5
vs
Detroit Mercy: 12.9
Blocks (L5)
+14.0% more
Purdue Fort Wayne: 3.0
vs
Detroit Mercy: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PFW Score
87.0
83
DETM Score
94.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.6 / 44.6
39.0 / 40.0
Assists
12.9 / 15.5
10.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.6 / 3.0
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
41.9 / 49.2
44.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
71.2 / 72.8
72.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
39.2 / 29.3
42.0 / 37.0
Steals
7.2 / 7.6
4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.2 / 9.3
12.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PFW
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -3.0
DETM
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-: +3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PFW
12-17-0
(41.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -3.0
DETM
Advantage
20-9-1
(69.0%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-: +3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
PFW
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: -0.7
DETM
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DETM
PFW
DETM
PFW
ML
58%
18-13
59%
19-13
50%
15-15
74%
23-8
ATS
61%
19-12
62%
20-12
50%
15-15
74%
23-8
TTL
61%
19-12
59%
19-13
100%
30-0
100%
31-0
Contextual Game News
