Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Trojans @ Monarchs TROY @ ODU

TROY

TROJANSTROY

13-6  |  Road

83
FINAL
Wed, Jan 21 • 7:00 PM ET
Chartway Arena
View Odds Details →

OLD DOMINION

MONARCHSODU

6-14  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
100%
📊
MONARCHS
0%
TROJANS --
MONARCHS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
OLD DOMINION
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Old Dominion)
TrojansTROY (-3.5) 0 MonarchsODU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trojans Cover

8.1%

Monarchs Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ODU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ODU)

TROY By 1-7 points

5.8%

TROY By 8-14 points

1.4%

ODU By 1-7 points

16.9%

ODU By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
72
TROY
86
OLD DOMINION
Simulated Score
68
TROY
72
OLD DOMINION
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Monarchs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Monarchs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Monarchs (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Monarchs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o152.5 Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 21, 2026 TROY @ ODU 83 - 77
Mar 8, 2025 ODU @ TROY 59 - 75
Jan 4, 2024 ODU @ TROY 73 - 86
Jan 5, 2023 ODU @ TROY 71 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +54.3% more
Troy: 4.5 vs Old Dominion: 2.1
Assists (L5) +35.1% more
Troy: 19.7 vs Old Dominion: 12.8
Steals (L5) +17.8% more
Troy: 7.8 vs Old Dominion: 6.4
Free Throw % (L5) +7.9%
Troy: 71.6% vs Old Dominion: 63.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TROY Score 72.0 83
ODU Score 86.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.2 / 42.2 17.0 / 23.0
Assists 12.8 / 19.7 9.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.1 / 4.5 2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 45.6 / 51.0 44.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 63.7 / 71.6 72.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 34.5 / 37.2 37.0 / 47.0
Steals 6.4 / 7.8 7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 9.2 12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TROY Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: -1.0
ODU
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TROY Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: -1.0
ODU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.8
ODU
21-10-1
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ODU
TROY
ODU
TROY
ML
52% 17-16
59% 20-14
67% 22-11
61% 20-13
ATS
70% 23-10
65% 22-12
67% 22-11
61% 20-13
TTL
70% 23-10
56% 19-15
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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