Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Flyers @ Explorers DAY @ LAS

DAYTON

FLYERSDAY

14-4  |  Road

64
FINAL
Wed, Jan 21 • 6:30 PM ET
John Glaser Arena
View Odds Details →

LA SALLE

EXPLORERSLAS

6-13  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
0%
📊
EXPLORERS
100%
FLYERS --
EXPLORERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
DAYTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Dayton)
FlyersDAY (-3.5) 0 ExplorersLAS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flyers Cover

98.2%

Explorers Cover

1.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAY -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAY)

DAY By 1-7 points

6.8%

DAY By 8-14 points

16.9%

LAS By 1-7 points

1.4%

LAS By 8-14 points

0.2%

AI Model Projected Score
87
DAYTON
66
LA SALLE
Simulated Score
65
DAYTON
78
LA SALLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Flyers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Explorers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Flyers (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Explorers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o137.5 Loss
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 21, 2026 DAY @ LAS 64 - 67
Dec 31, 2024 LAS @ DAY 70 - 84
Jan 23, 2024 DAY @ LAS 66 - 54
Feb 28, 2023 LAS @ DAY 53 - 77
Feb 26, 2022 DAY @ LAS 60 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +55.3% more
Dayton: 4.3 vs La Salle: 1.9
Steals (L5) +34.8% more
Dayton: 10.2 vs La Salle: 6.6
Free Throw % (L5) +5.0%
Dayton: 80.6% vs La Salle: 75.5%
Turnovers (L5) +20.9% more
La Salle: 12.2 vs Dayton: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAY Score 87.0 64
LAS Score 66.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.6 / 36.5 32.0 / 13.0
Assists 13.3 / 13.1 14.0 / 12.0
Blocks 1.9 / 4.3 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.4 / 42.9 45.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 75.5 / 80.6 64.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 30.4 / 32.0 31.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.6 / 10.2 10.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 10.1 15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAY Advantage
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
LAS
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAY Advantage
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
LAS
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9% Total +/-: -2.7
LAS
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAS
DAY
LAS
DAY
ML
69% 22-10
65% 24-13
69% 22-10
64% 23-13
ATS
78% 25-7
68% 25-12
69% 22-10
64% 23-13
TTL
66% 21-11
57% 21-16
100% 32-0
100% 36-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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