UNC GREENSBORO
SPARTANSUNCG
7-12 | Road
85
VMI
KEYDETSVMI
6-13 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
KEYDETS
0%
SPARTANS
--
KEYDETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-48.0
VMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +48.0 points (VMI)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VMI -48.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VMI)
UNCG By 1-7 points
0.0%
UNCG By 8-14 points
0.0%
VMI By 1-7 points
0.0%
VMI By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
UNC Greensboro
43
UNC GREENSBORO
VMI
91
VMI
Simulated Score
UNC Greensboro
78
UNC GREENSBORO
VMI
62
VMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Keydets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spartans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Keydets (+2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -48.0
D
Sim
Spartans (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u151.5
Loss
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim
u151.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
VMI @ UNCG
70 - 84
Feb 11, 2026
VMI @ UNCG
71 - 92
Jan 21, 2026
UNCG @ VMI
85 - 78
Mar 8, 2025
VMI @ UNCG
64 - 57
Feb 12, 2025
VMI @ UNCG
54 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+74.2% more
VMI: 3.1
vs
UNC Greensboro: 1.8
Steals (L5)
+34.4% more
VMI: 8.3
vs
UNC Greensboro: 6.2
Turnovers (L5)
+17.4% more
VMI: 11.5
vs
UNC Greensboro: 9.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.0%
VMI: 69.1%
vs
UNC Greensboro: 67.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNCG Score
43.0
85
VMI Score
91.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.4 / 37.6
35.0 / 42.0
Assists
11.6 / 11.7
10.0 / 17.0
Blocks
3.1 / 1.8
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
39.1 / 46.0
43.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
69.1 / 67.1
59.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
29.7 / 34.1
36.0 / 41.0
Steals
8.3 / 6.2
3.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.5 / 9.8
7.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCG
Advantage
15-19-0
(44.1%)
Margin: -1.9
ATS +/-: -1.0
VMI
6-26-0
(18.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -5.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCG
Advantage
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: -1.9
ATS +/-: -1.0
VMI
9-20-0
(31.0%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -5.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCG
22-10-0
O: 68.8% / U: 31.3%
Total +/-: +7.9
VMI
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VMI
UNCG
VMI
UNCG
ML
53%
17-15
38%
13-21
84%
27-5
71%
24-10
ATS
50%
16-16
44%
15-19
84%
27-5
71%
24-10
TTL
62%
20-12
76%
26-8
100%
32-0
100%
34-0
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