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EAST TENNESSEE STATE

BUCCANEERSETSU

13-6  |  Road

67
FINAL
Wed, Jan 21 • 7:00 PM ET
McKenzie Arena
View Odds Details →

CHATTANOOGA

MOCSUTC

9-10  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
100%
📊
MOCS
0%
BUCCANEERS --
MOCS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
168.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
CHATTANOOGA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Chattanooga)
BuccaneersETSU (-3.5) 0 MocsUTC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buccaneers Cover

0.8%

Mocs Cover

99.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTC -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTC)

ETSU By 1-7 points

0.6%

ETSU By 8-14 points

0.1%

UTC By 1-7 points

4.0%

UTC By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
72
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
96
CHATTANOOGA
Simulated Score
71
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
75
CHATTANOOGA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mocs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mocs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mocs (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Mocs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o143.5 Loss
Proj Total: 168.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 11, 2026 UTC @ ETSU 61 - 73
Jan 21, 2026 ETSU @ UTC 67 - 66
Feb 15, 2025 ETSU @ UTC 71 - 78
Jan 25, 2025 UTC @ ETSU 71 - 63
Mar 10, 2024 ETSU @ UTC 85 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +15.6% more
Chattanooga: 14.3 vs East Tennessee State: 12.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.8%
Chattanooga: 43.1% vs East Tennessee State: 39.3%
Steals (L5) +50.6% more
East Tennessee State: 7.9 vs Chattanooga: 3.9
Blocks (L5) +14.2% more
East Tennessee State: 3.2 vs Chattanooga: 2.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ETSU Score 72.0 67
UTC Score 96.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.1 / 39.3 34.0 / 16.0
Assists 14.3 / 12.4 13.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.7 / 3.2 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.1 / 50.6 43.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 83.6 / 82.5 91.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 32.0 / 30.7 31.0 / 38.0
Steals 3.9 / 7.9 8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 8.1 / 7.5 14.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
4%MONEY96%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ETSU Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
UTC
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ETSU Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
UTC
12-17-0 (41.4%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
ETSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +2.5
UTC
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTC
ETSU
UTC
ETSU
ML
48% 15-16
42% 14-19
53% 16-14
70% 23-10
ATS
52% 16-15
58% 19-14
55% 17-14
70% 23-10
TTL
77% 24-7
45% 15-18
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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