Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aztecs @ Lopes SDSU @ GCU

SAN DIEGO STATE

AZTECSSDSU

13-4  |  Road

69
FINAL
Wed, Jan 21 • 11:00 PM ET
Global Credit Union Arena
View Odds Details →

GRAND CANYON

LOPESGCU

11-6  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
AZTECS
100%
📊
LOPES
0%
AZTECS --
LOPES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
GRAND CANYON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Grand Canyon)
AztecsSDSU (-3.5) 0 LopesGCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aztecs Cover

3.6%

Lopes Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GCU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GCU)

SDSU By 1-7 points

2.7%

SDSU By 8-14 points

0.5%

GCU By 1-7 points

10.7%

GCU By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
57
SAN DIEGO STATE
75
GRAND CANYON
Simulated Score
65
SAN DIEGO STATE
70
GRAND CANYON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lopes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lopes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lopes (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Lopes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 17, 2026 GCU @ SDSU 73 - 63
Jan 21, 2026 SDSU @ GCU 69 - 70
Dec 5, 2023 SDSU @ GCU 73 - 79
Nov 13, 2019 GCU @ SDSU 61 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +3.0%
Grand Canyon: 76.8% vs San Diego State: 73.8%
Steals (L5) +21.4% more
San Diego State: 9.3 vs Grand Canyon: 7.3
Assists (L5) +21.3% more
San Diego State: 14.8 vs Grand Canyon: 11.6
Turnovers (L5) +10.3% more
San Diego State: 12.6 vs Grand Canyon: 11.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SDSU Score 57.0 69
GCU Score 75.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.2 / 36.7 48.0 / 17.0
Assists 11.6 / 14.8 12.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.8 / 4.7 6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 45.2 / 48.5 38.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 76.8 / 73.8 79.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 34.5 / 38.5 36.0 / 37.0
Steals 7.3 / 9.3 7.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 12.6 17.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDSU Advantage
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
GCU
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDSU
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
GCU Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +5.5
GCU
13-18-1
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GCU
SDSU
GCU
SDSU
ML
66% 21-11
62% 20-12
68% 21-10
72% 23-9
ATS
72% 23-9
69% 22-10
68% 21-10
72% 23-9
TTL
44% 14-18
75% 24-8
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
SDSU's Nick Anderson Making Speedy Recovery from ACL Surgery, Ey…
headtopics 6 days, 18 hours ago
UCLA's Second-Half Surge Over San Diego State: Wayne Knight Shin…
si 3 weeks, 4 days ago
UCLA vs. San Diego State: Key Matchups to Watch as Bruins Aim fo…
si 3 weeks, 6 days ago
New FGCU athletic director Brian Barrio says Eagles' 'greatest d…
gulfcoastnewsnow 2 months, 2 weeks ago
Mar 18, 2025; Dayton, OH, USA; San Diego State Aztecs head coach…
si 2 months, 2 weeks ago