Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bearcats @ Wildcats CIN @ ARIZ

CINCINNATI

BEARCATSCIN

10-8  |  Road

51
FINAL
Wed, Jan 21 • 9:00 PM ET
McKale Memorial Center
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

WILDCATSARIZ

18-0  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
BEARCATS
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
BEARCATS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
177.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Cincinnati)
BearcatsCIN (-3.5) 0 WildcatsARIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bearcats Cover

98.9%

Wildcats Cover

1.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CIN -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CIN By 1-7 points

4.8%

CIN By 8-14 points

13.7%

ARIZ By 1-7 points

0.8%

ARIZ By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
100
CINCINNATI
77
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
78
CINCINNATI
72
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bearcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bearcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bearcats (-13.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim Bearcats (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 177.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 21, 2026 CIN @ ARIZ 51 - 77
Jan 4, 2025 ARIZ @ CIN 72 - 67
Nov 21, 2022 CIN @ ARIZ 93 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +8.6% more
Cincinnati: 7.6 vs Arizona: 6.9
Turnovers (L5) +17.2% more
Arizona: 10.6 vs Cincinnati: 9.1
Rebounding (L5) +17.2% more
Arizona: 40.8 vs Cincinnati: 34.8
Field Goal % (L5) +9.1%
Arizona: 52.6% vs Cincinnati: 43.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 100.0 51
ARIZ Score 77.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.8 / 26.1 23.0 / 19.0
Assists 16.6 / 16.8 15.0 / 8.0
Blocks 4.3 / 4.0 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 52.6 / 43.4 43.0 / 30.0
Free Throw % 74.5 / 67.7 71.0 / 93.0
Rebounding 40.8 / 34.8 46.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.9 / 7.6 8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 9.1 6.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
ARIZ Advantage
36-3-0 (92.3%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
ARIZ Advantage
23-15-1 (60.5%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6% Total +/-: -4.6
ARIZ
20-19-0
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARIZ
CIN
ARIZ
CIN
ML
67% 26-13
67% 22-11
68% 23-11
74% 23-8
ATS
74% 29-10
64% 21-12
68% 23-11
74% 23-8
TTL
56% 22-17
67% 22-11
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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