Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Sun Devils WVU @ ASU

WEST VIRGINIA

MOUNTAINEERSWVU

12-6  |  Road

75
FINAL
Wed, Jan 21 • 9:00 PM ET
Desert Financial Arena
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA STATE

SUN DEVILSASU

10-8  |  Home

63
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
📊
SUN DEVILS
100%
MOUNTAINEERS --
SUN DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
WEST VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (West Virginia)
MountaineersWVU (-3.5) 0 Sun DevilsASU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

75.8%

Sun Devils Cover

24.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WVU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WVU)

WVU By 1-7 points

26.2%

WVU By 8-14 points

25.3%

ASU By 1-7 points

15.3%

ASU By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
74
WEST VIRGINIA
67
ARIZONA STATE
Simulated Score
70
WEST VIRGINIA
76
ARIZONA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mountaineers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sun Devils Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mountaineers (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Sun Devils (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 21, 2026 WVU @ ASU 75 - 63
Jan 21, 2025 ASU @ WVU 65 - 57
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
West Virginia: 35.2% vs Arizona State: 31.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.2%
West Virginia: 46.4% vs Arizona State: 44.2%
Blocks (L5) +176.1% more
Arizona State: 5.0 vs West Virginia: 1.8
Steals (L5) +53.7% more
Arizona State: 6.8 vs West Virginia: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WVU Score 74.0 75
ASU Score 67.0 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.9 / 35.2 33.0 / 46.0
Assists 15.6 / 11.2 15.0 / 17.0
Blocks 5.0 / 1.8 6.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 46.4 47.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 76.2 / 63.3 56.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 33.4 / 35.0 30.0 / 29.0
Steals 6.8 / 4.4 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.8 / 11.4 13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WVU Advantage
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
ASU
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WVU
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
ASU Advantage
20-12-1 (62.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
WVU
13-21-1
O: 38.2% / U: 61.8% Total +/-: -1.6
ASU
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ASU
WVU
ASU
WVU
ML
52% 17-16
63% 22-13
68% 21-10
76% 26-8
ATS
52% 17-16
60% 21-14
68% 21-10
76% 26-8
TTL
64% 21-12
40% 14-21
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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