Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Panthers @ Redbirds UNI @ ILST

NORTHERN IOWA

PANTHERSUNI

12-7  |  Road

54
FINAL
Wed, Jan 21 • 9:00 PM ET
CEFCU Arena
View Odds Details →

ILLINOIS STATE

REDBIRDSILST

13-6  |  Home

59
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
📊
REDBIRDS
100%
PANTHERS --
REDBIRDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
127.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
NORTHERN IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Northern Iowa)
PanthersUNI (-3.5) 0 RedbirdsILST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

95.5%

Redbirds Cover

4.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNI -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNI)

UNI By 1-7 points

12.2%

UNI By 8-14 points

23.0%

ILST By 1-7 points

3.3%

ILST By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
72
NORTHERN IOWA
55
ILLINOIS STATE
Simulated Score
71
NORTHERN IOWA
75
ILLINOIS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Panthers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Redbirds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Panthers (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Redbirds (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u132.5 Win
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Sim u132.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 UNI @ ILST 74 - 52
Feb 25, 2026 ILST @ UNI 71 - 69
Jan 21, 2026 UNI @ ILST 54 - 59
Feb 8, 2025 ILST @ UNI 65 - 68
Jan 11, 2025 UNI @ ILST 85 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +34.2% more
Illinois State: 13.8 vs Northern Iowa: 10.3
Free Throw % (L5) +13.9%
Illinois State: 72.7% vs Northern Iowa: 58.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +13.3%
Illinois State: 37.9% vs Northern Iowa: 24.6%
Turnovers (L5) +13.2% more
Illinois State: 9.6 vs Northern Iowa: 8.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNI Score 72.0 54
ILST Score 55.0 59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.9 / 24.6 28.0 / 17.0
Assists 13.8 / 10.3 6.0 / 4.0
Blocks 2.4 / 2.2 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.5 / 39.2 38.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 72.7 / 58.8 89.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 36.5 / 34.8 42.0 / 29.0
Steals 4.9 / 5.0 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 8.5 17.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNI
23-13-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 7.7 ATS +/-: +2.4
ILST
23-13-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNI
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 7.7 ATS +/-: +2.4
ILST
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UNI
14-21-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.7
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILST
UNI
ILST
UNI
ML
42% 15-21
51% 18-17
71% 24-10
56% 19-15
ATS
58% 21-15
49% 17-18
71% 24-10
56% 19-15
TTL
58% 21-15
69% 24-11
100% 34-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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