Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Texans @ Mavericks TAR @ UTA

TARLETON STATE

TEXANSTAR

11-8  |  Road

64
FINAL
Wed, Jan 21 • 8:00 PM ET
College Park Center
View Odds Details →

UT ARLINGTON

MAVERICKSUTA

12-6  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
TEXANS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
TARLETON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Tarleton State)
TexansTAR (-3.5) 0 MavericksUTA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

86.4%

Mavericks Cover

13.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TAR -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TAR)

TAR By 1-7 points

21.6%

TAR By 8-14 points

27.4%

UTA By 1-7 points

9.3%

UTA By 8-14 points

2.7%

AI Model Projected Score
79
TARLETON STATE
68
UT ARLINGTON
Simulated Score
68
TARLETON STATE
72
UT ARLINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texans (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o142.5 Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 UTA @ TAR 65 - 60
Jan 21, 2026 TAR @ UTA 64 - 71
Dec 29, 2025 TAR @ UTA 69 - 63
Feb 22, 2025 TAR @ UTA 57 - 67
Jan 4, 2025 UTA @ TAR 74 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +38.7% more
Tarleton State: 11.6 vs UT Arlington: 7.1
Assists (L5) +21.5% more
Tarleton State: 11.6 vs UT Arlington: 9.1
Field Goal % (L5) +3.1%
Tarleton State: 45.2% vs UT Arlington: 42.2%
Blocks (L5) +52.2% more
UT Arlington: 2.8 vs Tarleton State: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TAR Score 79.0 64
UTA Score 68.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.8 / 29.6 28.0 / 22.0
Assists 9.1 / 11.6 14.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.8 / 1.9 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.2 / 45.2 49.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 78.8 / 71.7 69.0 / 95.0
Rebounding 35.9 / 33.9 29.0 / 29.0
Steals 7.1 / 11.6 11.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 14.4 / 12.1 14.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
17%MONEY83%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TAR
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
UTA Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TAR
14-14-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
UTA Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TAR
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +4.8
UTA
7-23-0
O: 23.3% / U: 76.7% Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTA
TAR
UTA
TAR
ML
50% 16-16
59% 19-13
62% 20-12
66% 21-11
ATS
59% 19-13
69% 22-10
62% 20-12
66% 21-11
TTL
53% 17-15
50% 16-16
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Aiden Tobiason Brings Sharpshooting and Playmaking to Syracuse B…
si 6 hours, 5 minutes ago
Kansas Shakes Up Offensive Line: Amir Herring Promoted to Starti…
si 2 days, 5 hours ago
Jason Kidd in Advanced Talks to Join ESPN's NBA Countdown as Ana…
yahoo 2 days, 20 hours ago
Jason Kidd Nears ESPN Studio Analyst Role for NBA Countdown
theathleticuk 3 days ago
Jalen Shelley Compares Texas A&M Basketball's Press to Minnesota…
aggieswire 4 days, 12 hours ago