NORTHWESTERN
WILDCATSNU
8-10 | Road
74
USC
TROJANSUSC
14-4 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
TROJANS
0%
WILDCATS
--
TROJANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
178.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
USC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (USC)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USC)
NU By 1-7 points
23.0%
NU By 8-14 points
12.2%
USC By 1-7 points
26.8%
USC By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Northwestern
88
NORTHWESTERN
USC
90
USC
Simulated Score
Northwestern
68
NORTHWESTERN
USC
75
USC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Trojans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trojans
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Trojans (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Trojans (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o149.5
Loss
Proj Total: 178.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 21, 2026
NU @ USC
74 - 68
Feb 4, 2025
USC @ NU
75 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+57.2% more
USC: 12.6
vs
Northwestern: 8.0
Steals (L5)
+52.5% more
USC: 6.5
vs
Northwestern: 4.2
Rebounding (L5)
+22.0% more
USC: 37.9
vs
Northwestern: 31.1
Blocks (L5)
+19.0% more
USC: 5.0
vs
Northwestern: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NU Score
88.0
74
USC Score
90.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
23.5 / 32.5
15.0 / 20.0
Assists
17.0 / 15.7
13.0 / 22.0
Blocks
5.0 / 4.2
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
45.8 / 42.1
38.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
62.2 / 74.7
60.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
37.9 / 31.1
39.0 / 33.0
Steals
6.5 / 4.2
3.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 8.0
6.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NU
15-19-0
(44.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-: +0.6
USC
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NU
Advantage
16-16-2
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-: +0.6
USC
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NU
15-18-1
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.0
USC
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USC
NU
USC
NU
ML
52%
16-15
47%
16-18
58%
18-13
68%
23-11
ATS
68%
21-10
50%
17-17
58%
18-13
68%
23-11
TTL
68%
21-10
53%
18-16
100%
31-0
100%
34-0
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