OREGON STATE
BEAVERSORST
10-11 | Road
51
SAINT MARY'S
GAELSSMC
17-3 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
BEAVERS
100%
GAELS
0%
BEAVERS
--
GAELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
180.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
SAINT MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Saint Mary's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SMC -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMC)
ORST By 1-7 points
10.7%
ORST By 8-14 points
3.3%
SMC By 1-7 points
23.0%
SMC By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Oregon State
85
OREGON STATE
Saint Mary's
95
SAINT MARY'S
Simulated Score
Oregon State
58
OREGON STATE
Saint Mary's
70
SAINT MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Gaels
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gaels
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Gaels (+19.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Gaels (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o141.5
Loss
Proj Total: 180.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 128.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 21, 2026
ORST @ SMC
51 - 81
Mar 1, 2025
ORST @ SMC
64 - 74
Feb 8, 2025
SMC @ ORST
63 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+41.0% more
Saint Mary's: 15.1
vs
Oregon State: 10.7
Rebounding (L5)
+30.0% more
Saint Mary's: 38.5
vs
Oregon State: 29.6
Turnovers (L5)
+15.3% more
Saint Mary's: 11.5
vs
Oregon State: 10.0
Blocks (L5)
+9.8% more
Saint Mary's: 3.4
vs
Oregon State: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ORST Score
85.0
51
SMC Score
95.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.9 / 30.5
35.0 / 13.0
Assists
15.1 / 10.7
20.0 / 6.0
Blocks
3.4 / 3.1
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.1 / 40.5
48.0 / 29.0
Free Throw %
80.3 / 81.3
74.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
38.5 / 29.6
44.0 / 28.0
Steals
5.7 / 5.4
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.5 / 10.0
7.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORST
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
SMC
Advantage
27-6-0
(81.8%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORST
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
SMC
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ORST
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4%
Total +/-: +1.1
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMC
ORST
SMC
ORST
ML
56%
18-14
45%
15-18
82%
23-5
59%
19-13
ATS
62%
20-12
48%
16-17
83%
24-5
59%
19-13
TTL
53%
17-15
55%
18-15
100%
29-0
100%
32-0
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