UNC ASHEVILLE
BULLDOGSUNCA
8-12 | Road
83
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
SPARTANSUPST
9-11 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
SPARTANS
100%
BULLDOGS
--
SPARTANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
UNC ASHEVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (UNC Asheville)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNCA -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCA)
UNCA By 1-7 points
27.2%
UNCA By 8-14 points
23.0%
UPST By 1-7 points
18.6%
UPST By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
UNC Asheville
73
UNC ASHEVILLE
South Carolina Upstate
68
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Simulated Score
UNC Asheville
74
UNC ASHEVILLE
South Carolina Upstate
67
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u144.5
Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 4, 2026
UPST @ UNCA
67 - 76
Jan 21, 2026
UNCA @ UPST
83 - 69
Feb 12, 2025
UNCA @ UPST
92 - 85
Jan 15, 2025
UPST @ UNCA
92 - 93
Feb 10, 2024
UNCA @ UPST
77 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+22.9% more
UNC Asheville: 5.6
vs
South Carolina Upstate: 4.3
Turnovers (L5)
+17.0% more
South Carolina Upstate: 12.6
vs
UNC Asheville: 10.8
Assists (L5)
+8.1% more
South Carolina Upstate: 9.8
vs
UNC Asheville: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNCA Score
73.0
83
UPST Score
68.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.9 / 33.8
33.0 / 53.0
Assists
9.8 / 9.1
13.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.4 / 3.6
7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
41.2 / 41.3
44.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
69.8 / 71.0
53.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
38.1 / 36.5
31.0 / 35.0
Steals
4.3 / 5.6
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 10.8
8.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCA
Advantage
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
UPST
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCA
Advantage
15-14-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
UPST
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: -2.8
UPST
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UPST
UNCA
UPST
UNCA
ML
61%
19-12
53%
16-14
83%
25-5
63%
19-11
ATS
61%
19-12
57%
17-13
83%
25-5
63%
19-11
TTL
52%
16-15
60%
18-12
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
Contextual Game News
Nick Saban Declares Georgia the Most Complete Team in College Fo…
Kirby Smart Stays Silent on Nate Frazier's Injury Status as Geor…
Georgia Bulldogs Set to Clash with Oklahoma Sooners as Heavy Fav…
Michigan State Lands Five-Star Point Guard Antonio Pemberton: Wh…
Georgia Bulldogs Release Availability Report for SEC Opener at A…