NOTRE DAME
FIGHTING IRISHND
10-8 | Road
69
NORTH CAROLINA
TAR HEELSUNC
14-4 | Home
91
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING IRISH
100%
TAR HEELS
0%
FIGHTING IRISH
--
TAR HEELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (North Carolina)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNC -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)
ND By 1-7 points
4.0%
ND By 8-14 points
0.8%
UNC By 1-7 points
13.7%
UNC By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Notre Dame
73
NOTRE DAME
North Carolina
89
NORTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
Notre Dame
70
NOTRE DAME
North Carolina
75
NORTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tar Heels
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tar Heels
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tar Heels (-13.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Tar Heels (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o149.5
Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 21, 2026
ND @ UNC
69 - 91
Mar 12, 2025
ND @ UNC
56 - 76
Jan 4, 2025
UNC @ ND
74 - 73
Mar 5, 2024
ND @ UNC
51 - 84
Feb 22, 2023
UNC @ ND
63 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+99.5% more
North Carolina: 7.3
vs
Notre Dame: 3.6
Assists (L5)
+60.4% more
North Carolina: 15.6
vs
Notre Dame: 9.7
Blocks (L5)
+19.3% more
North Carolina: 2.9
vs
Notre Dame: 2.4
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.7%
North Carolina: 50.2%
vs
Notre Dame: 43.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ND Score
73.0
69
UNC Score
89.0
91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.4 / 31.5
38.0 / 32.0
Assists
15.6 / 9.7
18.0 / 13.0
Blocks
2.9 / 2.4
5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
50.2 / 43.5
51.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
63.8 / 69.7
70.0 / 54.0
Rebounding
35.4 / 34.7
44.0 / 39.0
Steals
7.3 / 3.6
3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.9 / 13.6
8.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ND
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.9
UNC
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 8.1
ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ND
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.9
UNC
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 8.1
ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ND
22-9-0
O: 71.0% / U: 29.0%
Total +/-: +5.0
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
ND
UNC
ND
ML
76%
25-8
65%
20-11
69%
22-10
77%
24-7
ATS
73%
24-9
55%
17-14
69%
22-10
77%
24-7
TTL
55%
18-15
68%
21-10
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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