Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hoyas @ Wildcats GTWN @ VILL

GEORGETOWN

HOYASGTWN

9-9  |  Road

51
FINAL
Wed, Jan 21 • 7:00 PM ET
Finneran Pavilion
View Odds Details →

VILLANOVA

WILDCATSVILL

14-4  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
HOYAS
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
HOYAS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
GEORGETOWN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Georgetown)
HoyasGTWN (-3.5) 0 WildcatsVILL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hoyas Cover

98.9%

Wildcats Cover

1.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GTWN -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GTWN)

GTWN By 1-7 points

4.8%

GTWN By 8-14 points

13.7%

VILL By 1-7 points

0.8%

VILL By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
74
GEORGETOWN
51
VILLANOVA
Simulated Score
68
GEORGETOWN
75
VILLANOVA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hoyas Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hoyas (-8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 GTWN @ VILL 78 - 64
Feb 7, 2026 VILL @ GTWN 80 - 73
Jan 21, 2026 GTWN @ VILL 51 - 66
Mar 4, 2025 VILL @ GTWN 73 - 75
Jan 20, 2025 GTWN @ VILL 64 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +17.8% more
Georgetown: 37.2 vs Villanova: 30.6
Blocks (L5) +23.0% more
Villanova: 2.6 vs Georgetown: 2.1
Assists (L5) +19.2% more
Villanova: 15.0 vs Georgetown: 12.6
Steals (L5) +15.6% more
Villanova: 6.0 vs Georgetown: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GTWN Score 74.0 51
VILL Score 51.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.1 / 35.0 32.0 / 32.0
Assists 15.0 / 12.6 9.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.6 / 2.1 0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.1 / 43.9 41.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 77.8 / 76.9 73.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 30.6 / 37.2 34.0 / 36.0
Steals 6.0 / 5.2 12.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 11.1 9.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GTWN
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.3
VILL Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GTWN
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.3
VILL Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
GTWN
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.4
VILL
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VILL
GTWN
VILL
GTWN
ML
44% 14-18
67% 22-11
72% 23-9
73% 22-8
ATS
56% 18-14
58% 19-14
72% 23-9
73% 22-8
TTL
41% 13-19
58% 19-14
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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