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FRESNO STATE

BULLDOGSFRES

9-9  |  Road

74
FINAL
Wed, Jan 21 • 9:00 PM ET
The Pit
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO

LOBOSUNM

14-4  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
LOBOS
0%
BULLDOGS --
LOBOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (New Mexico)
BulldogsFRES (-3.5) 0 LobosUNM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

13.6%

Lobos Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNM -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)

FRES By 1-7 points

9.3%

FRES By 8-14 points

2.7%

UNM By 1-7 points

21.6%

UNM By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
57
FRESNO STATE
68
NEW MEXICO
Simulated Score
72
FRESNO STATE
80
NEW MEXICO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lobos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lobos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lobos (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Lobos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 UNM @ FRES 80 - 78
Jan 21, 2026 FRES @ UNM 74 - 83
Jan 20, 2025 FRES @ UNM 67 - 95
Dec 31, 2024 UNM @ FRES 103 - 89
Mar 6, 2024 FRES @ UNM 58 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +25.8% more
New Mexico: 2.9 vs Fresno State: 2.3
Assists (L5) +14.3% more
New Mexico: 14.6 vs Fresno State: 12.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.2%
New Mexico: 40.8% vs Fresno State: 28.7%
Steals (L5) +12.0% more
New Mexico: 8.6 vs Fresno State: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FRES Score 57.0 74
UNM Score 68.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.8 / 28.7 29.0 / 34.0
Assists 14.6 / 12.8 18.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.9 / 2.3 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 47.2 / 41.6 43.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 73.5 / 81.3 60.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 36.7 / 33.3 39.0 / 43.0
Steals 8.6 / 7.7 18.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 11.2 10.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FRES
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
UNM Advantage
26-11-0 (70.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FRES Advantage
21-10-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
UNM
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -4.3
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
FRES
UNM
FRES
ML
57% 21-16
59% 19-13
74% 25-9
74% 23-8
ATS
57% 21-16
75% 24-8
74% 25-9
74% 23-8
TTL
41% 15-22
56% 18-14
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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