TEXAS
LONGHORNSTEX
11-7 | Road
80
KENTUCKY
WILDCATSUK
12-6 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
LONGHORNS
100%
WILDCATS
0%
LONGHORNS
--
WILDCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
197.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Kentucky)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UK -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UK)
TEX By 1-7 points
15.3%
TEX By 8-14 points
5.8%
UK By 1-7 points
26.2%
UK By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
95
TEXAS
Kentucky
102
KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
Texas
75
TEXAS
Kentucky
83
KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wildcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Wildcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o151.5
Win
Proj Total: 197.0
D
Sim
u151.5
Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 21, 2026
TEX @ UK
80 - 85
Feb 15, 2025
UK @ TEX
78 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+67.3% more
Kentucky: 4.4
vs
Texas: 2.6
Steals (L5)
+48.0% more
Kentucky: 8.5
vs
Texas: 5.7
Assists (L5)
+36.2% more
Kentucky: 15.4
vs
Texas: 11.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.9%
Kentucky: 40.9%
vs
Texas: 35.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
95.0
80
UK Score
102.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.9 / 35.0
28.0 / 11.0
Assists
15.4 / 11.3
12.0 / 9.0
Blocks
4.4 / 2.6
7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
47.4 / 46.1
43.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
66.8 / 77.5
86.0 / 90.0
Rebounding
31.5 / 39.7
36.0 / 34.0
Steals
8.5 / 5.7
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
9.8 / 10.7
8.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
21-15-0
(58.3%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +0.6
UK
Advantage
22-14-0
(61.1%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +0.6
UK
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +2.6
UK
18-18-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UK
TEX
UK
TEX
ML
71%
25-10
58%
21-15
72%
23-9
56%
19-15
ATS
83%
29-6
56%
20-16
72%
23-9
56%
19-15
TTL
63%
22-13
64%
23-13
100%
32-0
100%
34-0
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