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PITTSBURGH

PANTHERSPITT

8-10  |  Road

62
FINAL
Wed, Jan 21 • 7:00 PM ET
Conte Forum
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BOSTON COLLEGE

EAGLESBC

8-10  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
📊
EAGLES
100%
PANTHERS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
130.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Pittsburgh)
PanthersPITT (-3.5) 0 EaglesBC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

72.6%

Eagles Cover

27.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PITT -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PITT)

PITT By 1-7 points

26.8%

PITT By 8-14 points

24.3%

BC By 1-7 points

16.9%

BC By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
68
PITTSBURGH
62
BOSTON COLLEGE
Simulated Score
75
PITTSBURGH
71
BOSTON COLLEGE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Panthers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Panthers (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Panthers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Sim u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 21, 2026 PITT @ BC 62 - 65
Mar 8, 2025 BC @ PITT 67 - 93
Mar 2, 2024 PITT @ BC 90 - 65
Feb 14, 2023 BC @ PITT 58 - 77
Mar 8, 2022 BC @ PITT 66 - 46
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +20.0% more
Pittsburgh: 14.2 vs Boston College: 11.3
Free Throw % (L5) +14.1%
Pittsburgh: 73.4% vs Boston College: 59.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.0%
Pittsburgh: 44.8% vs Boston College: 40.9%
Blocks (L5) +94.8% more
Boston College: 4.9 vs Pittsburgh: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PITT Score 68.0 62
BC Score 62.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.6 / 32.6 32.0 / 32.0
Assists 11.3 / 14.2 13.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.9 / 2.5 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 40.9 / 44.8 45.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 59.3 / 73.4 62.0 / 41.0
Rebounding 34.6 / 29.1 36.0 / 41.0
Steals 7.3 / 7.7 4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 10.0 9.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PITT Advantage
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
BC
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PITT Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
BC
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PITT
17-15-1
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.2
BC
12-19-0
O: 38.7% / U: 61.3% Total +/-: -3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BC
PITT
BC
PITT
ML
61% 19-12
58% 19-14
61% 17-11
45% 15-18
ATS
73% 22-8-1
64% 21-12
61% 17-11
45% 15-18
TTL
61% 19-12
61% 20-13
100% 28-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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