WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
24-20-6 | Road
3
VANCOUVER
CANUCKSVAN
16-28-5 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Kevin Lankinen
#32 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | 13-2 | 4.21 | 0.840 | -- |
| Kevin Lankinen | None-None | 3.00 | 0.906 | -- |
13-2
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.21
GAA
Ldr 3.00
0.840
Save %
Ldr 0.906
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
0%
CANUCKS
100%
CAPITALS
--
CANUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
VANCOUVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around VAN +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)
WSH By 1 goal
19.7%
WSH By 2-3 goals
29.6%
VAN By 1 goal
12.1%
VAN By 2-3 goals
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Vancouver
2
VANCOUVER
Simulated Score
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
Vancouver
3
VANCOUVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Capitals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Canucks
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Canucks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim
Canucks (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 21, 2026
WSH @ VAN
3 - 4
Oct 19, 2025
VAN @ WSH
4 - 3
Jan 25, 2025
WSH @ VAN
1 - 2
Jan 8, 2025
VAN @ WSH
1 - 2
Mar 16, 2024
WSH @ VAN
2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+40.8% more
Washington: 17.9
vs
Vancouver: 10.6
Takeaways (L5)
+14.2% more
Washington: 4.6
vs
Vancouver: 4.0
Power Play % (L5)
+8.7%
Washington: 18.9%
vs
Vancouver: 10.2%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+11.5% more
Vancouver: 29.4
vs
Washington: 26.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.0
3
VAN Score
2.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
10.6 / 17.9
13.0 / 14.0
Faceoff %
51.7 / 51.4
38.9 / 61.1
Hits
18.3 / 19.3
17.0 / 18.0
Power Play %
10.2 / 18.9
0.0 / 66.7
Shots on Goal
29.4 / 26.4
25.0 / 32.0
Takeaways
4.0 / 4.6
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
WSH
VAN
WSH
ML
50%
2-2
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
ATS
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
TTL
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show at Capitals' Home Opener as Washi…
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show as Capitals Clip Penguins 5-3 in …
Penguins Embarrassed by Capitals as Turnovers and Disorganizatio…
Bryan Baker's Dominance Out of Bullpen Puts Rays One Win from AL…
Alexander Ovechkin to Retire After 2026-27 Season: A Look at His…