PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
23-14-11 | Road
4
CALGARY
FLAMESCGY
21-23-5 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Ryan Graves
#27 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Dustin Wolf
#32 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Graves | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Dustin Wolf | None-None | 4.00 | 0.840 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
4.00
--
Save %
0.840
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
0%
FLAMES
100%
PENGUINS
--
FLAMES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CALGARY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around CGY +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CGY)
PIT By 1 goal
19.7%
PIT By 2-3 goals
29.6%
CGY By 1 goal
12.1%
CGY By 2-3 goals
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Calgary
2
CALGARY
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Calgary
3
CALGARY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Penguins
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Flames (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim
Penguins (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 21, 2026
PIT @ CGY
4 - 1
Jan 10, 2026
CGY @ PIT
2 - 1
Nov 30, 2024
CGY @ PIT
2 - 6
Oct 22, 2024
PIT @ CGY
3 - 4
Mar 2, 2024
PIT @ CGY
3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+25.2% more
Pittsburgh: 5.3
vs
Calgary: 4.0
Shots on Goal (L5)
+23.0% more
Pittsburgh: 30.7
vs
Calgary: 23.7
Faceoff % (L5)
+14.2%
Pittsburgh: 54.3%
vs
Calgary: 40.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.0
4
CGY Score
2.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.6 / 13.2
11.0 / 17.0
Faceoff %
40.1 / 54.3
56.4 / 43.6
Hits
19.1 / 18.8
24.0 / 17.0
Power Play %
1437.0 / 1362.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
23.7 / 30.7
19.0 / 25.0
Takeaways
4.0 / 5.3
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CGY
PIT
CGY
PIT
ML
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
ATS
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
TTL
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
0%
0-3
50%
2-2
Contextual Game News
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