MIAMI
HEATMIA
22-21 | Road
130
SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
12-31 | Home
117
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
KINGS
0%
HEAT
--
KINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Sacramento)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)
MIA By 1-7 points
16.9%
MIA By 8-14 points
6.8%
SAC By 1-7 points
26.8%
SAC By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
115
MIAMI
Sacramento
121
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
Miami
109
MIAMI
Sacramento
112
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Kings
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Kings
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Kings (+4)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Kings (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u238.0
Loss
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Sim
u238.0
Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 20, 2026
MIA @ SAC
130 - 117
Dec 6, 2025
SAC @ MIA
127 - 111
Jan 6, 2025
MIA @ SAC
118 - 123
Nov 4, 2024
SAC @ MIA
111 - 110
Feb 26, 2024
MIA @ SAC
121 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+65.9% more
Sacramento: 4.9
vs
Miami: 2.9
Turnovers (L5)
+16.8% more
Sacramento: 16.0
vs
Miami: 13.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+9.0%
Sacramento: 51.1%
vs
Miami: 42.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.7%
Sacramento: 40.3%
vs
Miami: 34.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
115.0
130
SAC Score
121.0
117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.3 / 34.5
37.0 / 50.0
Assists
27.9 / 28.7
27.0 / 33.0
Blocks
4.9 / 2.9
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
51.1 / 42.1
51.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
76.8 / 78.8
86.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
41.5 / 48.0
49.0 / 46.0
Steals
6.3 / 7.2
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
16.0 / 13.7
16.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
MIA
SAC
MIA
ML
55%
55-45
48%
46-50
61%
50-32
59%
48-34
ATS
54%
52-45-3
51%
49-47
61%
50-32
59%
48-34
TTL
58%
57-42-1
59%
57-39
100%
82-0
100%
82-0
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