LOS ANGELES
LAKERSLAL
25-16 | Road
115
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
29-14 | Home
107
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
NUGGETS
0%
LAKERS
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
LAL By 1-7 points
16.9%
LAL By 8-14 points
6.8%
DEN By 1-7 points
26.8%
DEN By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
111
LOS ANGELES
Denver
117
DENVER
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
112
LOS ANGELES
Denver
118
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets (+2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Nuggets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o227.0
Loss
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Sim
u227.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
DEN @ LAL
125 - 127
Mar 5, 2026
LAL @ DEN
113 - 120
Jan 20, 2026
LAL @ DEN
115 - 107
Mar 19, 2025
DEN @ LAL
108 - 120
Mar 14, 2025
LAL @ DEN
126 - 131
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+27.4% more
Los Angeles: 13.9
vs
Denver: 10.1
Blocks (L5)
+16.6% more
Los Angeles: 4.7
vs
Denver: 3.9
Rebounding (L5)
+12.1% more
Los Angeles: 40.1
vs
Denver: 35.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.4%
Los Angeles: 39.2%
vs
Denver: 33.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAL Score
111.0
115
DEN Score
117.0
107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.9 / 39.2
41.0 / 40.0
Assists
24.2 / 24.8
27.0 / 24.0
Blocks
3.9 / 4.7
7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 48.7
45.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
79.5 / 80.8
74.0 / 66.0
Rebounding
35.3 / 40.1
31.0 / 51.0
Steals
6.4 / 6.9
6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
10.1 / 13.9
5.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL
57-35-0
(62.0%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL
Advantage
51-41-0
(55.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.4
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
LAL
DEN
LAL
ML
54%
57-48
61%
68-43
55%
47-39
54%
49-42
ATS
63%
65-38-2
61%
67-43-1
55%
47-39
54%
49-42
TTL
54%
56-48-1
61%
66-43-2
100%
86-0
100%
91-0
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