SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
30-13 | Road
106
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
25-15 | Home
111
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
0%
ROCKETS
100%
SPURS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SA -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
SA By 1-7 points
2.2%
SA By 8-14 points
8.0%
HOU By 1-7 points
0.3%
HOU By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
128
SAN ANTONIO
Houston
101
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
San Antonio
112
SAN ANTONIO
Houston
117
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spurs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spurs (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o221.0
Loss
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Sim
u221.0
Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
HOU @ SA
120 - 145
Jan 28, 2026
SA @ HOU
111 - 99
Jan 20, 2026
SA @ HOU
106 - 111
Nov 7, 2025
HOU @ SA
110 - 121
Feb 26, 2025
SA @ HOU
106 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+28.3% more
San Antonio: 29.1
vs
Houston: 20.8
Blocks (L5)
+23.5% more
San Antonio: 6.3
vs
Houston: 4.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.3%
San Antonio: 38.0%
vs
Houston: 33.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.0%
San Antonio: 49.5%
vs
Houston: 45.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
128.0
106
HOU Score
101.0
111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.7 / 38.0
37.0 / 28.0
Assists
20.8 / 29.1
29.0 / 24.0
Blocks
4.9 / 6.3
9.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.5 / 49.5
52.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
70.6 / 74.6
68.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
48.8 / 43.7
43.0 / 45.0
Steals
8.5 / 7.1
5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
14.1 / 13.2
14.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
HOU
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
SA
HOU
SA
ML
61%
69-44
60%
111-73
59%
51-35
58%
61-44
ATS
62%
70-43
58%
107-76-1
59%
51-35
58%
61-44
TTL
51%
58-55
74%
134-47-3
100%
86-0
100%
105-0
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