Home / NHL Projections NHL / Sharks @ Lightning SJ @ TB

SAN JOSE

SHARKSSJ

25-20-3  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, Jan 20 • 7:00 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

30-13-4  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Yaroslav Askarov
GOALTENDER

Yaroslav Askarov

#30 | Goaltender
@
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Yaroslav Askarov None-None 3.08 0.842 --
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 1.00 0.957 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
3.08 GAA Ldr 1.00
0.842 Save % Ldr 0.957
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SHARKS
100%
📊
LIGHTNING
0%
SHARKS --
LIGHTNING --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
SharksSJ (-3.5) 0 LightningTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sharks Cover

30.9%

Lightning Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

SJ By 1 goal

12.1%

SJ By 2-3 goals

9.3%

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
SAN JOSE
3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
2
SAN JOSE
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lightning Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lightning Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lightning (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Lightning (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 20, 2026 SJ @ TB 1 - 4
Jan 3, 2026 TB @ SJ 7 - 3
Jan 2, 2025 TB @ SJ 1 - 2
Dec 5, 2024 SJ @ TB 1 - 8
Mar 21, 2024 TB @ SJ 4 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +22.8% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5 vs San Jose: 3.7
Power Play % (L5) +16.3%
Tampa Bay: 25.5% vs San Jose: 9.2%
Shots on Goal (L5) +12.0% more
Tampa Bay: 28.8 vs San Jose: 25.7
Blocked Shots (L5) +27.8% more
San Jose: 15.7 vs Tampa Bay: 11.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJ Score 2.0 1
TB Score 3.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 11.3 / 15.7 14.0 / 18.0
Faceoff % 44.5 / 50.0 44.0 / 56.0
Hits 16.4 / 21.4 13.0 / 29.0
Power Play % 2550.0 / 918.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 28.8 / 25.7 20.0 / 23.0
Takeaways 4.5 / 3.7 1.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
10%MONEY90%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
79%MONEY21%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
SJ
TB
SJ
ML
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
0% 0-3
ATS
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
TTL
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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