SAN JOSÉ STATE
SPARTANSSJSU
6-12 | Road
54
NEVADA
WOLF PACKNEV
13-5 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
WOLF PACK
0%
SPARTANS
--
WOLF PACK
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
NEVADA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Nevada)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NEV -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEV)
SJSU By 1-7 points
0.1%
SJSU By 8-14 points
0.0%
NEV By 1-7 points
1.1%
NEV By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
San José State
70
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Nevada
100
NEVADA
Simulated Score
San José State
68
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Nevada
75
NEVADA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wolf Pack
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wolf Pack
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wolf Pack (-16.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -30.0
D
Sim
Wolf Pack (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o139.5
Win
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 17, 2026
NEV @ SJSU
71 - 87
Jan 20, 2026
SJSU @ NEV
54 - 87
Feb 14, 2025
NEV @ SJSU
73 - 58
Jan 18, 2025
SJSU @ NEV
64 - 75
Feb 23, 2024
NEV @ SJSU
84 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+82.0% more
Nevada: 14.3
vs
San José State: 7.9
Blocks (L5)
+36.3% more
Nevada: 3.1
vs
San José State: 2.3
Rebounding (L5)
+23.0% more
Nevada: 34.1
vs
San José State: 27.7
Steals (L5)
+10.8% more
Nevada: 6.6
vs
San José State: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SJSU Score
70.0
54
NEV Score
100.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
46.9 / 42.1
57.0 / 17.0
Assists
14.3 / 7.9
21.0 / 6.0
Blocks
3.1 / 2.3
5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
46.7 / 41.7
51.0 / 33.0
Free Throw %
82.5 / 78.2
81.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
34.1 / 27.7
40.0 / 31.0
Steals
6.6 / 6.0
4.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
11.9 / 11.7
5.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJSU
9-24-0
(27.3%)
Margin: -6.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
NEV
Advantage
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJSU
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -6.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
NEV
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SJSU
21-11-0
O: 65.6% / U: 34.4%
Total +/-: +5.3
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2%
Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEV
SJSU
NEV
SJSU
ML
62%
23-14
73%
24-9
73%
27-10
62%
20-12
ATS
73%
27-10
73%
24-9
73%
27-10
62%
20-12
TTL
49%
18-19
61%
20-13
100%
37-0
100%
32-0
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