FLORIDA STATE
SEMINOLESFSU
7-11 | Road
65
MIAMI
HURRICANESMIA
15-3 | Home
63
AI Model Win Probability
SEMINOLES
100%
HURRICANES
0%
SEMINOLES
--
HURRICANES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
212.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
FSU By 1-7 points
8.0%
FSU By 8-14 points
2.2%
MIA By 1-7 points
20.1%
MIA By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Florida State
100
FLORIDA STATE
Miami
112
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Florida State
75
FLORIDA STATE
Miami
82
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hurricanes
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hurricanes
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hurricanes (-11.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Hurricanes (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o165.5
Loss
Proj Total: 212.0
D
Sim
u165.5
Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 24, 2026
MIA @ FSU
83 - 73
Jan 20, 2026
FSU @ MIA
65 - 63
Feb 19, 2025
MIA @ FSU
66 - 74
Jan 8, 2025
FSU @ MIA
80 - 65
Mar 9, 2024
MIA @ FSU
75 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+51.6% more
Miami: 8.3
vs
Florida State: 5.5
Assists (L5)
+9.5% more
Miami: 12.8
vs
Florida State: 11.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.3%
Miami: 46.9%
vs
Florida State: 41.6%
Blocks (L5)
+20.0% more
Florida State: 2.4
vs
Miami: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FSU Score
100.0
65
MIA Score
112.0
63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.4 / 29.9
25.0 / 35.0
Assists
12.8 / 11.7
15.0 / 13.0
Blocks
1.9 / 2.4
4.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 41.6
42.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
75.5 / 76.7
73.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
34.1 / 35.8
35.0 / 30.0
Steals
8.3 / 5.5
7.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 13.8
14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FSU
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: -0.1
MIA
Advantage
26-9-0
(74.3%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FSU
Advantage
19-13-1
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: -0.1
MIA
18-15-1
(54.6%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: -2.0
MIA
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
FSU
MIA
FSU
ML
63%
22-13
64%
21-12
64%
21-12
59%
19-13
ATS
63%
22-13
55%
18-15
64%
21-12
59%
19-13
TTL
63%
22-13
48%
16-17
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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