Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rockets @ Minutemen TOL @ MASS

TOLEDO

ROCKETSTOL

10-8  |  Road

82
FINAL
Tue, Jan 20 • 6:00 PM ET
Mullins Center
View Odds Details →

MASSACHUSETTS

MINUTEMENMASS

11-8  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
📊
MINUTEMEN
100%
ROCKETS --
MINUTEMEN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
TOLEDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Toledo)
RocketsTOL (-3.5) 0 MinutemenMASS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

65.5%

Minutemen Cover

34.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TOL -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOL)

TOL By 1-7 points

27.4%

TOL By 8-14 points

21.6%

MASS By 1-7 points

20.1%

MASS By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
87
TOLEDO
83
MASSACHUSETTS
Simulated Score
72
TOLEDO
78
MASSACHUSETTS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Minutemen Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockets (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Minutemen (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o163.5 Win
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim u163.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 MASS @ TOL 67 - 77
Jan 20, 2026 TOL @ MASS 82 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +5.6%
Toledo: 78.0% vs Massachusetts: 72.4%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.9%
Toledo: 48.3% vs Massachusetts: 44.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.6%
Toledo: 39.5% vs Massachusetts: 37.9%
Blocks (L5) +118.1% more
Massachusetts: 4.5 vs Toledo: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOL Score 87.0 82
MASS Score 83.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.9 / 39.5 41.0 / 43.0
Assists 15.4 / 15.4 19.0 / 14.0
Blocks 4.5 / 2.0 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.4 / 48.3 49.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 72.4 / 78.0 68.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 35.3 / 32.6 35.0 / 27.0
Steals 7.7 / 6.8 8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.9 / 10.2 14.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOL Advantage
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
MASS
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
MASS
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4% Total +/-: -0.8
MASS
20-12-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MASS
TOL
MASS
TOL
ML
44% 14-18
48% 16-17
68% 21-10
61% 20-13
ATS
47% 15-17
48% 16-17
68% 21-10
61% 20-13
TTL
56% 18-14
64% 21-12
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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