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UNLV

REBELSUNLV

9-8  |  Road

86
FINAL
Tue, Jan 20 • 11:00 PM ET
Dee Glen Smith Spectrum
View Odds Details →

UTAH STATE

AGGIESUSU

15-2  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
REBELS
100%
📊
AGGIES
0%
REBELS --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
UTAH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Utah State)
RebelsUNLV (-3.5) 0 AggiesUSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rebels Cover

2.9%

Aggies Cover

97.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USU -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USU)

UNLV By 1-7 points

2.2%

UNLV By 8-14 points

0.4%

USU By 1-7 points

9.3%

USU By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
56
UNLV
75
UTAH STATE
Simulated Score
75
UNLV
78
UTAH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aggies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aggies (-15.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.5 Loss
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 UNLV @ USU 60 - 80
Mar 3, 2026 USU @ UNLV 65 - 92
Jan 20, 2026 UNLV @ USU 86 - 76
Mar 13, 2025 UNLV @ USU 58 - 70
Jan 29, 2025 UNLV @ USU 71 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +18.6% more
Utah State: 37.6 vs UNLV: 31.7
Assists (L5) +9.4% more
Utah State: 15.5 vs UNLV: 14.1
Blocks (L5) +21.3% more
UNLV: 5.1 vs Utah State: 4.0
Turnovers (L5) +18.8% more
UNLV: 11.2 vs Utah State: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNLV Score 56.0 86
USU Score 75.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.2 / 38.2 29.0 / 50.0
Assists 15.5 / 14.1 14.0 / 8.0
Blocks 4.0 / 5.1 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.1 / 47.3 45.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 75.3 / 74.4 55.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 37.6 / 31.7 31.0 / 40.0
Steals 7.6 / 7.6 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.1 / 11.2 8.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNLV
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
USU Advantage
29-7-0 (80.6%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNLV Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
USU
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UNLV
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2% Total +/-: +3.3
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USU
UNLV
USU
UNLV
ML
49% 17-18
50% 17-17
66% 21-11
59% 20-14
ATS
74% 26-9
65% 22-12
67% 22-11
59% 20-14
TTL
51% 18-17
62% 21-13
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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