Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Utes @ Wildcats UTAH @ KSU

UTAH

UTESUTAH

9-9  |  Road

78
FINAL
Tue, Jan 20 • 9:00 PM ET
Bramlage Coliseum
View Odds Details →

KANSAS STATE

WILDCATSKSU

9-9  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
UTES
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
UTES --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
194.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Utah)
UtesUTAH (-3.5) 0 WildcatsKSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Utes Cover

99.2%

Wildcats Cover

0.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UTAH -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)

UTAH By 1-7 points

4.0%

UTAH By 8-14 points

12.2%

KSU By 1-7 points

0.6%

KSU By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
109
UTAH
85
KANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
70
UTAH
75
KANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Utes Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Utes (-9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o166.5 Loss
Proj Total: 194.0
D
Sim u166.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 20, 2026 UTAH @ KSU 78 - 81
Feb 17, 2025 KSU @ UTAH 69 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +9.9%
Utah: 70.1% vs Kansas State: 60.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
Utah: 36.8% vs Kansas State: 33.8%
Blocks (L5) +120.3% more
Kansas State: 3.5 vs Utah: 1.6
Assists (L5) +46.6% more
Kansas State: 20.2 vs Utah: 13.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score 109.0 78
KSU Score 85.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.8 / 36.8 52.0 / 35.0
Assists 20.2 / 13.8 17.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.5 / 1.6 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 46.5 50.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 60.3 / 70.1 70.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 36.6 / 34.3 29.0 / 34.0
Steals 5.9 / 5.3 4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.3 / 11.6 10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.8 ATS +/-: -0.6
KSU Advantage
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -4.8 ATS +/-: -0.6
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: -0.5
KSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KSU
UTAH
KSU
UTAH
ML
59% 19-13
56% 18-14
69% 22-10
67% 20-10
ATS
62% 20-12
56% 18-14
69% 22-10
67% 20-10
TTL
47% 15-17
41% 13-19
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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