AIR FORCE
FALCONSAF
3-15 | Road
52
COLORADO STATE
RAMSCSU
11-7 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
100%
RAMS
0%
FALCONS
--
RAMS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
107.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
COLORADO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Colorado State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CSU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSU)
AF By 1-7 points
24.3%
AF By 8-14 points
13.7%
CSU By 1-7 points
26.2%
CSU By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Air Force
53
AIR FORCE
Colorado State
54
COLORADO STATE
Simulated Score
Air Force
61
AIR FORCE
Colorado State
77
COLORADO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rams
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rams
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rams (+19.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Rams (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u133.5
Win
Proj Total: 107.0
D
Sim
u133.5
Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 10, 2026
CSU @ AF
91 - 74
Jan 20, 2026
AF @ CSU
52 - 81
Feb 25, 2025
CSU @ AF
77 - 55
Jan 28, 2025
AF @ CSU
58 - 79
Mar 9, 2024
CSU @ AF
82 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+17.8% more
Colorado State: 30.3
vs
Air Force: 25.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.8%
Colorado State: 40.9%
vs
Air Force: 32.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.7%
Colorado State: 46.4%
vs
Air Force: 41.7%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.6%
Colorado State: 80.3%
vs
Air Force: 76.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
AF Score
53.0
52
CSU Score
54.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.9 / 32.0
42.0 / 17.0
Assists
12.5 / 12.3
17.0 / 8.0
Blocks
1.5 / 1.7
4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
46.4 / 41.7
52.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
80.3 / 76.7
65.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
30.3 / 25.7
37.0 / 30.0
Steals
5.0 / 5.8
10.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 15.4
6.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AF
3-29-0
(9.4%)
Margin: -18.3
ATS +/-: -4.9
CSU
Advantage
21-13-0
(61.8%)
Margin: 4.6
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AF
10-21-1
(32.3%)
Margin: -18.3
ATS +/-: -4.9
CSU
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 4.6
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
AF
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
CSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSU
AF
CSU
AF
ML
56%
19-15
81%
26-6
65%
20-11
62%
20-12
ATS
62%
21-13
69%
22-10
65%
20-11
62%
20-12
TTL
56%
19-15
69%
22-10
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
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