Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cardinals @ Chippewas BALL @ CMU

BALL STATE

CARDINALSBALL

5-13  |  Road

68
FINAL
Tue, Jan 20 • 7:00 PM ET
McGuirk Arena
View Odds Details →

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

CHIPPEWASCMU

5-13  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
CHIPPEWAS
0%
CARDINALS --
CHIPPEWAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
117.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-45.0
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +45.0 points (Central Michigan)
CardinalsBALL (-3.5) 0 ChippewasCMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

0.0%

Chippewas Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CMU -45.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CMU)

BALL By 1-7 points

0.0%

BALL By 8-14 points

0.0%

CMU By 1-7 points

0.0%

CMU By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
36
BALL STATE
81
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
68
BALL STATE
72
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Chippewas Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Chippewas Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Chippewas (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -45.0
D
Sim Chippewas (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 117.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 CMU @ BALL 69 - 85
Jan 20, 2026 BALL @ CMU 68 - 67
Mar 4, 2025 CMU @ BALL 69 - 67
Jan 21, 2025 BALL @ CMU 82 - 80
Feb 27, 2024 BALL @ CMU 79 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +181.8% more
Central Michigan: 3.9 vs Ball State: 1.4
Turnovers (L5) +25.5% more
Central Michigan: 12.4 vs Ball State: 9.9
Assists (L5) +11.4% more
Central Michigan: 12.7 vs Ball State: 11.4
Steals (L5) +10.2% more
Ball State: 7.8 vs Central Michigan: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BALL Score 36.0 68
CMU Score 81.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.0 / 33.5 63.0 / 32.0
Assists 12.7 / 11.4 13.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.9 / 1.4 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 43.8 / 43.1 48.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 70.9 / 78.8 50.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 29.0 / 28.9 34.0 / 32.0
Steals 7.0 / 7.8 4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 9.9 12.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BALL Advantage
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
CMU
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BALL
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
CMU Advantage
15-13-1 (53.6%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BALL
9-19-1
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9% Total +/-: -6.2
CMU
13-16-0
O: 44.8% / U: 55.2% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CMU
BALL
CMU
BALL
ML
57% 17-13
43% 13-17
70% 21-9
62% 18-11
ATS
67% 20-10
67% 20-10
70% 21-9
62% 18-11
TTL
67% 20-10
50% 15-15
100% 30-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud, Admits Demanding $9,000…
bleacherreport 0 minutes ago
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud in $9,000 Scheme
wsls 0 minutes ago
Big Ten Commissioner Tony Petitti Denies Any Expansion Talks Ami…
saturdaydownsouth 6 hours ago
Aiden Tobiason Brings Sharpshooting and Playmaking to Syracuse B…
si 6 hours, 3 minutes ago
CareSource Invitational Turns Tennis Center into Basketball Show…
wcpo 18 hours, 44 minutes ago