OKLAHOMA STATE
COWBOYSOKST
14-4 | Road
65
TCU
HORNED FROGSTCU
11-7 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
COWBOYS
100%
HORNED FROGS
0%
COWBOYS
--
HORNED FROGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
TCU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (TCU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TCU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TCU)
OKST By 1-7 points
21.6%
OKST By 8-14 points
10.7%
TCU By 1-7 points
27.2%
TCU By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma State
63
OKLAHOMA STATE
TCU
66
TCU
Simulated Score
Oklahoma State
68
OKLAHOMA STATE
TCU
73
TCU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Horned Frogs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Horned Frogs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Horned Frogs (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Horned Frogs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u162.5
Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim
u162.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
OKST @ TCU
88 - 95
Feb 14, 2026
TCU @ OKST
95 - 92
Jan 20, 2026
OKST @ TCU
65 - 68
Feb 12, 2025
OKST @ TCU
72 - 73
Jan 23, 2024
TCU @ OKST
74 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+85.7% more
TCU: 4.5
vs
Oklahoma State: 2.4
Assists (L5)
+13.8% more
TCU: 16.5
vs
Oklahoma State: 14.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.5%
TCU: 46.0%
vs
Oklahoma State: 44.4%
Steals (L5)
+9.8% more
Oklahoma State: 6.6
vs
TCU: 5.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OKST Score
63.0
65
TCU Score
66.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.6 / 37.4
30.0 / 40.0
Assists
16.5 / 14.5
19.0 / 16.0
Blocks
4.5 / 2.4
7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.0 / 44.4
46.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
69.5 / 75.0
50.0 / 50.0
Rebounding
35.1 / 34.3
39.0 / 35.0
Steals
5.9 / 6.6
8.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
10.0 / 10.5
14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKST
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -0.9
TCU
Advantage
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKST
16-19-0
(45.7%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -0.9
TCU
Advantage
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
OKST
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +2.9
TCU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TCU
OKST
TCU
OKST
ML
74%
26-9
60%
21-14
63%
19-11
66%
21-11
ATS
74%
26-9
57%
20-15
63%
19-11
66%
21-11
TTL
66%
23-12
57%
20-15
100%
30-0
100%
32-0
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