TEXAS TECH
RED RAIDERSTTU
14-4 | Road
92
BAYLOR
BEARSBAY
11-6 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
RED RAIDERS
100%
BEARS
0%
RED RAIDERS
--
BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
BAYLOR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Baylor)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BAY -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAY)
TTU By 1-7 points
0.1%
TTU By 8-14 points
0.0%
BAY By 1-7 points
1.4%
BAY By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas Tech
67
TEXAS TECH
Baylor
96
BAYLOR
Simulated Score
Texas Tech
71
TEXAS TECH
Baylor
76
BAYLOR
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bears
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bears
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bears (+2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim
Bears (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o154.5
Win
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 20, 2026
TTU @ BAY
92 - 73
Mar 13, 2025
BAY @ TTU
74 - 76
Feb 4, 2025
BAY @ TTU
59 - 73
Mar 9, 2024
BAY @ TTU
68 - 78
Feb 6, 2024
TTU @ BAY
73 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+18.6% more
Baylor: 12.3
vs
Texas Tech: 10.4
Blocks (L5)
+12.3% more
Baylor: 4.9
vs
Texas Tech: 4.4
Assists (L5)
+21.7% more
Texas Tech: 17.5
vs
Baylor: 13.7
Steals (L5)
+17.1% more
Texas Tech: 5.5
vs
Baylor: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TTU Score
67.0
92
BAY Score
96.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.5 / 38.3
33.0 / 63.0
Assists
13.7 / 17.5
14.0 / 14.0
Blocks
4.9 / 4.4
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
44.1 / 46.8
49.0 / 60.0
Free Throw %
70.6 / 70.6
50.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
38.0 / 39.1
29.0 / 28.0
Steals
4.6 / 5.5
10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.3 / 10.4
11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TTU
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
BAY
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TTU
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
BAY
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TTU
15-19-0
O: 44.1% / U: 55.9%
Total +/-: -1.6
BAY
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAY
TTU
BAY
TTU
ML
58%
19-14
62%
21-13
53%
17-15
71%
22-9
ATS
58%
19-14
65%
22-12
53%
17-15
71%
22-9
TTL
45%
15-18
59%
20-14
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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