UT MARTIN
SKYHAWKSUTM
15-4 | Road
50
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
REDHAWKSSEMO
9-10 | Home
66
AI Model Win Probability
SKYHAWKS
100%
REDHAWKS
0%
SKYHAWKS
--
REDHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Southeast Missouri State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SEMO -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEMO)
UTM By 1-7 points
20.1%
UTM By 8-14 points
9.3%
SEMO By 1-7 points
27.4%
SEMO By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
UT Martin
70
UT MARTIN
Southeast Missouri State
74
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
UT Martin
78
UT MARTIN
Southeast Missouri State
72
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Redhawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Skyhawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Redhawks (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Skyhawks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o140.5
Loss
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 17, 2026
SEMO @ UTM
56 - 53
Jan 20, 2026
UTM @ SEMO
50 - 66
Jan 30, 2025
UTM @ SEMO
79 - 90
Jan 4, 2025
SEMO @ UTM
63 - 66
Feb 24, 2024
UTM @ SEMO
82 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+46.9% more
UT Martin: 6.2
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 3.3
Rebounding (L5)
+29.2% more
UT Martin: 41.9
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 29.6
Steals (L5)
+16.6% more
UT Martin: 8.1
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 6.7
Turnovers (L5)
+16.1% more
UT Martin: 13.8
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 11.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTM Score
70.0
50
SEMO Score
74.0
66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.8 / 31.1
34.0 / 23.0
Assists
11.5 / 12.2
15.0 / 6.0
Blocks
3.3 / 6.2
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
42.9 / 42.6
40.0 / 33.0
Free Throw %
64.3 / 72.3
53.0 / 59.0
Rebounding
29.6 / 41.9
33.0 / 37.0
Steals
6.7 / 8.1
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.6 / 13.8
12.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTM
Advantage
22-11-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +1.6
SEMO
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTM
Advantage
15-14-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +1.6
SEMO
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UTM
9-21-0
O: 30.0% / U: 70.0%
Total +/-: -8.2
SEMO
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7%
Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEMO
UTM
SEMO
UTM
ML
64%
21-12
69%
22-10
50%
15-15
69%
20-9
ATS
67%
22-11
56%
18-14
50%
15-15
69%
20-9
TTL
58%
19-14
44%
14-18
100%
30-0
100%
29-0
