EAST TEXAS A&M
LIONSETAM
7-12 | Road
80
INCARNATE WORD
CARDINALSUIW
9-9 | Home
58
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
CARDINALS
0%
LIONS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
INCARNATE WORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Incarnate Word)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UIW -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UIW)
ETAM By 1-7 points
0.8%
ETAM By 8-14 points
0.1%
UIW By 1-7 points
4.8%
UIW By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
East Texas A&M
74
EAST TEXAS A&M
Incarnate Word
97
INCARNATE WORD
Simulated Score
East Texas A&M
70
EAST TEXAS A&M
Incarnate Word
78
INCARNATE WORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (-6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o144.5
Loss
Proj Total: 171.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
UIW @ ETAM
82 - 73
Jan 19, 2026
ETAM @ UIW
80 - 58
Mar 1, 2025
UIW @ ETAM
75 - 68
Dec 7, 2024
ETAM @ UIW
53 - 65
Feb 19, 2024
ETAM @ UIW
76 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+36.5% more
Incarnate Word: 3.4
vs
East Texas A&M: 2.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.5%
Incarnate Word: 70.9%
vs
East Texas A&M: 60.4%
Assists (L5)
+35.7% more
East Texas A&M: 15.1
vs
Incarnate Word: 9.7
Steals (L5)
+30.2% more
East Texas A&M: 7.9
vs
Incarnate Word: 5.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ETAM Score
74.0
80
UIW Score
97.0
58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.2 / 28.1
19.0 / 38.0
Assists
9.7 / 15.1
8.0 / 15.0
Blocks
3.4 / 2.5
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
40.9 / 40.9
33.0 / 56.0
Free Throw %
70.9 / 60.4
88.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
32.8 / 34.0
31.0 / 34.0
Steals
5.5 / 7.9
4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.5 / 14.1
6.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ETAM
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.7
UIW
Advantage
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ETAM
Advantage
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.7
UIW
10-18-0
(35.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ETAM
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -1.3
UIW
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UIW
ETAM
UIW
ETAM
ML
47%
14-16
52%
13-12
76%
22-7
62%
15-9
ATS
53%
16-14
56%
14-11
77%
23-7
62%
15-9
TTL
60%
18-12
68%
17-8
100%
30-0
100%
24-0
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