BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
26-15 | Road
103
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
30-10 | Home
104
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
PISTONS
100%
CELTICS
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
238.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-7 points
27.4%
BOS By 8-14 points
21.6%
DET By 1-7 points
20.1%
DET By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
121
BOSTON
Detroit
117
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Boston
105
BOSTON
Detroit
125
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Celtics
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Celtics (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Pistons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o223.5
Loss
Proj Total: 238.0
D
Sim
u223.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 19, 2026
BOS @ DET
103 - 104
Dec 15, 2025
DET @ BOS
112 - 105
Nov 26, 2025
DET @ BOS
114 - 117
Oct 26, 2025
BOS @ DET
113 - 119
Feb 26, 2025
BOS @ DET
97 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.1%
Boston: 83.5%
vs
Detroit: 70.3%
Steals (L5)
+86.8% more
Detroit: 13.1
vs
Boston: 7.0
Blocks (L5)
+46.1% more
Detroit: 8.0
vs
Boston: 5.5
Turnovers (L5)
+34.3% more
Detroit: 18.1
vs
Boston: 13.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
121.0
103
DET Score
117.0
104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.2 / 37.2
31.0 / 32.0
Assists
27.9 / 24.0
24.0 / 13.0
Blocks
8.0 / 5.5
9.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
47.4 / 47.4
43.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
70.3 / 83.5
74.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
48.4 / 50.7
41.0 / 45.0
Steals
13.1 / 7.0
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
18.1 / 13.5
8.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
BOS
DET
BOS
ML
55%
64-53
57%
61-46
49%
47-49
53%
47-41
ATS
53%
60-54-3
59%
61-43-3
49%
47-49
53%
47-41
TTL
60%
70-46-1
56%
60-47
100%
96-0
100%
88-0
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