Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Cavaliers OKC @ CLE

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

35-8  |  Road

136
FINAL
Mon, Jan 19 • 2:30 PM ET
Rocket Arena
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

24-19  |  Home

104
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
CAVALIERS
100%
THUNDER --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
257.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 CavaliersCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

75.8%

Cavaliers Cover

24.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

26.2%

OKC By 8-14 points

25.3%

CLE By 1-7 points

15.3%

CLE By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
132
OKLAHOMA CITY
125
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
115
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (+6) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o230.0 Win
Proj Total: 257.0
D
Sim u230.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 22, 2026 CLE @ OKC 113 - 121
Jan 19, 2026 OKC @ CLE 136 - 104
Jan 16, 2025 CLE @ OKC 114 - 134
Jan 8, 2025 OKC @ CLE 122 - 129
Nov 8, 2023 CLE @ OKC 120 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +40.6% more
Oklahoma City: 8.3 vs Cleveland: 4.9
Free Throw % (L5) +5.5%
Oklahoma City: 82.8% vs Cleveland: 77.3%
Assists (L5) +50.9% more
Cleveland: 36.4 vs Oklahoma City: 24.1
Turnovers (L5) +26.6% more
Cleveland: 15.7 vs Oklahoma City: 12.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 132.0 136
CLE Score 125.0 104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 44.1 / 37.3 23.0 / 49.0
Assists 36.4 / 24.1 20.0 / 32.0
Blocks 4.9 / 8.3 5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 51.8 / 50.3 37.0 / 56.0
Free Throw % 77.3 / 82.8 80.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 41.9 / 43.9 54.0 / 38.0
Steals 7.8 / 7.3 8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 15.7 / 12.4 21.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
CLE
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
OKC
CLE
OKC
ML
60% 69-46
70% 80-34
56% 55-44
48% 46-49
ATS
67% 75-37-3
73% 83-30-1
56% 55-44
48% 46-49
TTL
59% 68-47
67% 76-38
100% 99-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Declares Himself NBA's Best Player, Shru…
bleacherreport 7 hours, 25 minutes ago
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Takes Blame for Thunder's Game 7 Loss, B…
bleacherreport 7 hours, 33 minutes ago
Cavs 2026-27 Viewing Guide: DAZN, National TV, and Free Over-the…
yahoo 1 day, 13 hours ago
Brooks Barnhizer Shines in Thunder Preseason Debut, Sparks Hope …
si 1 day, 19 hours ago
Thunder's Young Core Shines in Preseason Loss to Pelicans
yahoo 1 day, 19 hours ago