Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pacers @ 76ers IND @ PHI

INDIANA

PACERSIND

10-33  |  Road

104
FINAL
Mon, Jan 19 • 7:00 PM ET
Xfinity Mobile Arena
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

76ERSPHI

22-18  |  Home

113
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
📊
76ERS
100%
PACERS --
76ERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
240.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Indiana)
PacersIND (-3.5) 0 76ersPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pacers Cover

72.6%

76ers Cover

27.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

IND By 1-7 points

26.8%

IND By 8-14 points

24.3%

PHI By 1-7 points

16.9%

PHI By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
123
INDIANA
117
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
110
INDIANA
115
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pacers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim 76ers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pacers (-6) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim 76ers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o227.5 Loss
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Sim u227.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 PHI @ IND 105 - 94
Feb 24, 2026 PHI @ IND 135 - 114
Jan 19, 2026 IND @ PHI 104 - 113
Dec 12, 2025 IND @ PHI 105 - 115
Mar 14, 2025 IND @ PHI 112 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +16.3% more
Indiana: 16.0 vs Philadelphia: 13.4
Assists (L5) +13.6% more
Indiana: 27.2 vs Philadelphia: 23.5
Blocks (L5) +46.6% more
Philadelphia: 6.5 vs Indiana: 4.4
Free Throw % (L5) +21.0%
Philadelphia: 87.1% vs Indiana: 66.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 123.0 104
PHI Score 117.0 113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.0 / 32.5 29.0 / 38.0
Assists 23.5 / 27.2 22.0 / 24.0
Blocks 6.5 / 4.4 5.0 / 9.0
Field Goal % 46.3 / 42.6 48.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 87.1 / 66.1 67.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 40.1 / 42.9 40.0 / 46.0
Steals 9.4 / 9.1 18.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 13.4 / 16.0 9.0 / 24.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
PHI Advantage
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
PHI Advantage
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
IND
PHI
IND
ML
63% 69-40
48% 47-50
48% 45-48
54% 45-38
ATS
65% 71-38
59% 57-40
48% 45-48
54% 45-38
TTL
55% 60-49
54% 52-45
100% 93-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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