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ALABAMA A&M

BULLDOGSAAMU

9-8  |  Road

73
FINAL
Mon, Jan 19 • 5:00 PM ET
Mitchell Center
View Odds Details →

ALABAMA STATE

HORNETSALST

5-12  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
HORNETS
100%
BULLDOGS --
HORNETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
ALABAMA A&M
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Alabama A&M)
BulldogsAAMU (-3.5) 0 HornetsALST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

81.6%

Hornets Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around AAMU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AAMU)

AAMU By 1-7 points

24.3%

AAMU By 8-14 points

26.8%

ALST By 1-7 points

12.2%

ALST By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
80
ALABAMA A&M
71
ALABAMA STATE
Simulated Score
72
ALABAMA A&M
75
ALABAMA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hornets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs (-2) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Hornets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.0 Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u146.0 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 ALST @ AAMU 89 - 88
Jan 19, 2026 AAMU @ ALST 73 - 69
Mar 1, 2025 AAMU @ ALST 52 - 94
Jan 18, 2025 ALST @ AAMU 69 - 65
Mar 2, 2024 ALST @ AAMU 53 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +24.9% more
Alabama A&M: 13.9 vs Alabama State: 10.5
Field Goal % (L5) +2.9%
Alabama A&M: 46.3% vs Alabama State: 43.4%
Blocks (L5) +77.4% more
Alabama State: 5.0 vs Alabama A&M: 2.8
Steals (L5) +43.4% more
Alabama State: 9.1 vs Alabama A&M: 6.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AAMU Score 80.0 73
ALST Score 71.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.2 / 28.9 32.0 / 25.0
Assists 10.5 / 13.9 16.0 / 9.0
Blocks 5.0 / 2.8 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.4 / 46.3 45.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 74.7 / 72.6 65.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 37.2 / 39.4 35.0 / 25.0
Steals 9.1 / 6.3 8.0 / 15.0
Turnovers 15.2 / 12.6 20.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AAMU Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: -0.1
ALST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AAMU Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: -0.1
ALST
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
AAMU
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.3
ALST
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALST
AAMU
ALST
AAMU
ML
65% 20-11
55% 16-13
76% 19-6
67% 16-8
ATS
65% 20-11
55% 16-13
76% 19-6
67% 16-8
TTL
52% 16-15
66% 19-10
100% 25-0
100% 24-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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