Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Retrievers @ Bearcats UMBC @ BING

UMBC

RETRIEVERSUMBC

9-7  |  Road

78
FINAL
Mon, Jan 19 • 2:00 PM ET
Events Center (Binghamton)
View Odds Details →

BINGHAMTON

BEARCATSBING

4-15  |  Home

60
AI Model Win Probability
RETRIEVERS
0%
📊
BEARCATS
100%
RETRIEVERS --
BEARCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
UMBC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (UMBC)
RetrieversUMBC (-3.5) 0 BearcatsBING (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Retrievers Cover

93.3%

Bearcats Cover

6.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UMBC -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UMBC)

UMBC By 1-7 points

15.3%

UMBC By 8-14 points

25.3%

BING By 1-7 points

4.8%

BING By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
76
UMBC
61
BINGHAMTON
Simulated Score
68
UMBC
72
BINGHAMTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Retrievers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bearcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Retrievers (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Bearcats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 5, 2026 BING @ UMBC 62 - 79
Jan 19, 2026 UMBC @ BING 78 - 60
Feb 13, 2025 BING @ UMBC 77 - 81
Jan 4, 2025 UMBC @ BING 82 - 87
Mar 5, 2024 BING @ UMBC 72 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +25.1% more
UMBC: 13.4 vs Binghamton: 10.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.8%
UMBC: 38.7% vs Binghamton: 31.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.7%
UMBC: 46.0% vs Binghamton: 41.3%
Free Throw % (L5) +4.2%
UMBC: 76.9% vs Binghamton: 72.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UMBC Score 76.0 78
BING Score 61.0 60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.9 / 38.7 33.0 / 44.0
Assists 10.0 / 13.4 8.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.7 / 2.0 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.3 / 46.0 44.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 72.7 / 76.9 47.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 28.5 / 30.0 30.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.1 / 4.7 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 9.1 8.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UMBC Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +6.0
BING
8-23-0 (25.8%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UMBC Advantage
19-12-0 (61.3%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +6.0
BING
14-13-0 (51.8%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -0.5
BING
15-12-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4% Total +/-: +5.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BING
UMBC
BING
UMBC
ML
67% 20-10
58% 18-13
57% 17-13
55% 17-14
ATS
73% 22-8
68% 21-10
57% 17-13
55% 17-14
TTL
70% 21-9
39% 12-19
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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