STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
LUMBERJACKSSFA
15-3 | Road
79
NICHOLLS
COLONELSNICH
8-10 | Home
62
AI Model Win Probability
LUMBERJACKS
100%
COLONELS
0%
LUMBERJACKS
--
COLONELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
173.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
NICHOLLS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Nicholls)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NICH -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NICH)
SFA By 1-7 points
12.2%
SFA By 8-14 points
4.0%
NICH By 1-7 points
24.3%
NICH By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Stephen F. Austin
82
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Nicholls
91
NICHOLLS
Simulated Score
Stephen F. Austin
69
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Nicholls
72
NICHOLLS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Colonels
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Colonels
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Colonels (+4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Colonels (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o144.5
Loss
Proj Total: 173.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
NICH @ SFA
78 - 81
Jan 19, 2026
SFA @ NICH
79 - 62
Mar 1, 2025
NICH @ SFA
94 - 70
Jan 18, 2025
SFA @ NICH
61 - 73
Feb 5, 2020
NICH @ SFA
64 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+56.3% more
Nicholls: 13.2
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 8.4
Assists (L5)
+19.0% more
Nicholls: 15.4
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 12.9
Steals (L5)
+16.8% more
Nicholls: 9.5
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 8.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+10.6%
Nicholls: 38.1%
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 27.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SFA Score
82.0
79
NICH Score
91.0
62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.1 / 27.6
25.0 / 36.0
Assists
15.4 / 12.9
9.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.9 / 2.7
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.4 / 42.4
33.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
68.5 / 67.5
76.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
27.1 / 39.6
34.0 / 41.0
Steals
9.5 / 8.1
9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 8.4
10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SFA
Advantage
28-6-0
(82.4%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
NICH
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.5
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SFA
Advantage
23-9-0
(71.9%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
NICH
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -2.5
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SFA
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -0.9
NICH
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NICH
SFA
NICH
SFA
ML
53%
17-15
59%
17-12
68%
19-9
79%
23-6
ATS
47%
15-17
59%
17-12
68%
19-9
79%
23-6
TTL
56%
18-14
62%
18-11
100%
28-0
100%
29-0
Contextual Game News
K-State's Avery Johnson and Ground Attack Shine in 71-3 Rout of …
Kansas State's Dominant 71-3 Win Over Nicholls: Key Takeaways fr…
K-State Quarterback Avery Johnson Shatters School Record in Domi…
UCLA Shakes Up Athletics Leadership: Former Lakers Exec Takes He…
North Carolina forces winner-take-all CWS final after Lynch, Gla…