Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lions @ Vaqueros SELA @ RGV

SE LOUISIANA

LIONSSELA

5-13  |  Road

65
FINAL
Mon, Jan 19 • 7:30 PM ET
UTRGV Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY

VAQUEROSRGV

7-11  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
📊
VAQUEROS
0%
LIONS --
VAQUEROS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (UT Rio Grande Valley)
LionsSELA (-3.5) 0 VaquerosRGV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

5.5%

Vaqueros Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around RGV -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RGV)

SELA By 1-7 points

4.0%

SELA By 8-14 points

0.8%

RGV By 1-7 points

13.7%

RGV By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
59
SE LOUISIANA
75
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Simulated Score
71
SE LOUISIANA
75
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Vaqueros Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Vaqueros Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Vaqueros (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Vaqueros (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u135.5 Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim u135.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 RGV @ SELA 96 - 75
Jan 19, 2026 SELA @ RGV 65 - 68
Mar 3, 2025 SELA @ RGV 76 - 77
Jan 6, 2025 RGV @ SELA 75 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +61.7% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 17.7 vs SE Louisiana: 11.0
Free Throw % (L5) +15.3%
UT Rio Grande Valley: 81.4% vs SE Louisiana: 66.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +7.4%
UT Rio Grande Valley: 48.0% vs SE Louisiana: 40.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.1%
UT Rio Grande Valley: 37.3% vs SE Louisiana: 30.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SELA Score 59.0 65
RGV Score 75.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.3 / 30.2 26.0 / 30.0
Assists 17.7 / 11.0 17.0 / 18.0
Blocks 2.6 / 3.9 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 40.6 42.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 81.4 / 66.1 68.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 31.2 / 31.2 37.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.4 / 7.1 4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 13.9 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SELA
9-22-0 (29.0%)
Margin: -5.4 ATS +/-: -0.9
RGV Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +4.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SELA
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -5.4 ATS +/-: -0.9
RGV Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +4.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SELA
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -1.4
RGV
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RGV
SELA
RGV
SELA
ML
53% 16-14
70% 21-9
54% 15-13
66% 19-10
ATS
53% 16-14
60% 18-12
54% 15-13
67% 20-10
TTL
60% 18-12
70% 21-9
100% 28-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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