CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
BLUE DEVILSCCSU
10-6 | Road
61
MERCYHURST
LAKERSMERC
7-11 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE DEVILS
100%
LAKERS
0%
BLUE DEVILS
--
LAKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
114.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
MERCYHURST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Mercyhurst)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MERC -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MERC)
CCSU By 1-7 points
5.8%
CCSU By 8-14 points
1.4%
MERC By 1-7 points
16.9%
MERC By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Central Connecticut
50
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
Mercyhurst
64
MERCYHURST
Simulated Score
Central Connecticut
68
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
Mercyhurst
72
MERCYHURST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lakers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lakers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lakers (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Lakers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u133.5
Loss
Proj Total: 114.0
D
Sim
u133.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
MERC @ CCSU
78 - 80
Jan 19, 2026
CCSU @ MERC
61 - 79
Feb 13, 2025
MERC @ CCSU
63 - 73
Jan 5, 2025
CCSU @ MERC
62 - 50
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+56.9% more
Mercyhurst: 5.0
vs
Central Connecticut: 3.2
Steals (L5)
+34.8% more
Mercyhurst: 8.1
vs
Central Connecticut: 6.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+14.8%
Central Connecticut: 43.1%
vs
Mercyhurst: 28.4%
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.6%
Central Connecticut: 78.5%
vs
Mercyhurst: 66.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CCSU Score
50.0
61
MERC Score
64.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.4 / 43.1
53.0 / 23.0
Assists
13.7 / 14.6
22.0 / 13.0
Blocks
5.0 / 3.2
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
42.4 / 50.8
55.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
66.9 / 78.5
100.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
33.5 / 32.4
34.0 / 33.0
Steals
8.1 / 6.0
6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
8.6 / 9.7
8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CCSU
Advantage
18-12-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -1.6
MERC
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CCSU
14-13-1
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -1.6
MERC
Advantage
21-11-0
(65.6%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CCSU
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
MERC
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MERC
CCSU
MERC
CCSU
ML
59%
20-14
57%
17-13
79%
26-7
57%
17-13
ATS
62%
21-13
63%
19-11
79%
26-7
57%
17-13
TTL
53%
18-16
60%
18-12
100%
33-0
100%
30-0
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